The situation facing the United States following its second surprise strike against Iran on 28 February has once again revealed that the strategic calculations made during the twelve day conflict in June 2025 were far from precise. The unfolding developments suggest that earlier assumptions in Washington may have been overly optimistic. A number of analysts have pointed out that since returning to office, President Donald Trump has made several ambitious promises concerning the Russia Ukraine war, the Middle East and other regions that remain contentious within the American political agenda. Yet despite the confident rhetoric that has accompanied these pledges, tangible results have remained elusive.

At times, it appears that President Trump may have underestimated the complexity of the challenges before him. Issues that appear deceptively straightforward on the surface often conceal layers of political and strategic difficulty. This tendency is perhaps rooted in the President’s remarkable confidence in his own instincts, a trait that has defined much of his political career.

In truth, the United States had not originally placed an aggressive military plan for the Middle East at the centre of its strategic agenda. From the very first day of his administration, Trump repeatedly promised that his presidency would prioritise peace and would avoid becoming entangled in the region’s long running conflicts. Many analysts believed Washington was instead preparing for an era of economic rivalry, particularly with China, where competition in technology, trade and global influence was expected to dominate the coming decade.

However, the........

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