Ever since the onset of the Gulf conflict - the US and Israel against Iran, the world economy has found itself in a precarious 'tightrope' situation. With every statement and development, we collectively hold our breath, bracing for the next potential impact. However, in the past week, there's been a glimmer of hope. As the saying goes, sometimes a "good thing comes out of the worst" situations. Following the talks in Islamabad last weekend, the involved parties have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, a small but significant step forward.

Since then, we could dare to say that many positive developments are in motion. Such as sides looking forward to a new phase of talks this week, yet again, in Islamabad. But, given the nature of these 'hot-cold' developments, many analysts caution that this progress remains delicate and fragile.

Regardless of when and under what conditions this conflict might ultimately find resolution, we must acknowledge that it will take a considerable amount of time for the economies of the region and many nations worldwide to regain their footing. The longer the conflict drags on, the more pronounced that challenge will become. So, as we navigate these uncertain times, we hold on to hope, cherishing every sign of peace and collaboration.

One of the clearest early indicators has emerged in our region, Azerbaijan's neighbouring country, Georgia, where authorities have already revised down tourism revenue projections for 2026, from $5 billion to $4.9 billion, reflecting growing uncertainty.

Even under a relatively contained scenario, analysts estimate that a short-term conflict lasting between one and six months could shave off around $220 million from Georgia’s tourism income. This signals a broader regional vulnerability: in the eyes of long-haul travelers from markets such as the United States, China, and the European Union, the South Caucasus is often perceived as a single, interconnected destination. Instability in one part of the region can therefore cast a shadow over its neighbors, including Azerbaijan. As one article in OC Media frames the situation as 'Iran war is putting a dent in Georgia’s tourism industry'.

What is the current situation in Azerbaijan? Has it been affected by the ongoing war?

Since the beginning of the conflict, Azerbaijan has transformed into a transportation hub, a role it has embraced despite being directly impacted by the war. Although a drone landed on its territory, Azerbaijan has managed to maintain its status as a key transit point without compromising its prestige.

Between February 28 and April 15, a total of 3,546 people were evacuated from Iran to Azerbaijan.

How about the statistics of tourism?

According to the latest official data from the State Statistics Committee, a total of 337,300 foreigners and stateless individuals from 163 countries visited Azerbaijan in January and February. Of these tourists, 23.2% came from Russia, 21.1% from Türkiye, 9.0% from Iran, and 5.0% from Georgia. This represents a decrease of 0.4% compared to the same period in 2025.

An 11% drop in arrivals from Gulf countries affected the overall numbers; however, there was a 20% increase in visitors from Central Asia. It is important to note that these statistics do not cover the period of the war. The nearly 11% decline in arrivals from the Gulf countries is partly attributed to the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran since late February, Iran's counterattacks on Arab nations, and the suspension of flights to those Gulf countries.

In his remarks to AzerNEWS, Ruslan Guliyev, Chairman of the Azerbaijan Health and Thermal Tourism Support Association, underscores both the vulnerability and resilience of the sector:

"Well, of course, tourism is heavily influenced by various factors such as natural phenomena, disasters, wars, and conflicts occurring worldwide. However, tourism also possesses a remarkable ability to recover quickly, demonstrating a 'strong immune' system"

That “shock-and-recovery” cycle, however, does not prevent immediate disruption. Guliyev points to March as a turning point, when uncertainty translated directly into cancellations and financial strain:

“In March, almost all our forecasts and, at the same time, all real operations were canceled. This also created a huge financial burden. Failure to fulfill contractual obligations directly led to the application of force majeure. Of course, if we take into account that the Gulf countries play a big role as the Europe-Asia corridor. Here we are not talking only about Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. Traffic and referrals to the Far East, Asian countries, as transit routes have also been completely closed. Our forecasts show that, yes, these days are certain for Azerbaijanis both in terms of inbound tourism and outbound tourism. There are risks. Approximate calculations show that every day, since the conflict began, the world tourism economy loses $600 million per day, and if we consider that the United States and Frankfurt have almost completely canceled flights to these countries, and according to the conversations going on in the corridors, this will not be restored until September.

However, Ruslan Guliyev presents an important contradiction: a crisis in one corridor will give rise to another. In view of the current disturbances in the Middle East, Azerbaijan seems to have become a viable option:

"But this is, of course, an opportunity for Azerbaijan, that is, these days, Azerbaijan plays the role of a hub, an air corridor. If the restoration process does not commence within two weeks, and the fragile peace agreement collapses into conflict once more, we cannot consider the possibility of a new tourism season. However, Azerbaijan has promising opportunities, particularly the growing need to enhance tourism collaboration with the countries of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS); this is essential. There is a pressing need to reactivate the Silk Road route. Currently, representatives from the alternative tourism industry are working on various transit routes toward Türkiye and Europe. While there is a low influx of tourists coming to Azerbaijan for health and business tourism, there is no significant decline in this area. Furthermore, the upcoming World Urban Forum, scheduled to be held in Azerbaijan in May, offers hope. Countries participating in this forum have confirmed their attendance, indicating that there will likely be no significant threats in the coming month."

Putting all that pessimism aside, he says the most telling insight, however, lies in Azerbaijan’s aviation and transit positioning. While other airspaces face disruptions, Baku remains operational:

"Azerbaijani airspace is functioning; it is not completely closed. We also see in official or, so to speak, other official information that the Baku air hub has expanded its summer schedule, and we see that flights continue. There are also real advantages for Azerbaijan in terms of transit, business trips, aviation services, and short-haul travel. In general, this may have negative effects in the short-term perspective in terms of Azerbaijani tourism revenues. Because the tourist market coming to Azerbaijan is still largely from near and medium-haul countries. Currently, the Indian and Pakistani markets are undergoing a 'recovery process'. There is also an increase in tourists from China. As I mentioned, there is also a certain increase in tourists coming to Azerbaijan from Eastern and Western Europe, as well as from the USA, for various purposes. There is a sector in Azerbaijan that is related to both health tourism and business tourism events industry, and we think that developing this sector as an alternative will create added value to statistics, to inbound tourism statistics, by the end of the year.”

© AzerNews