Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Finance is increasingly highlighting the country’s evolving economic structure as part of a farsighted strategy to broaden the foundations of growth beyond hydrocarbons. The document, “Statement on Preliminary Indicators for the 2027 State and Consolidated Budgets”, provides a clear illustration of this direction. Based on a conservative oil price assumption of $65 per barrel, the report projects that the non-oil economy will expand at an average annual rate of 4.4% through 2030, while growth in the oil and gas sector is expected to remain more modest, at around 2.3%. As a result, the share of non-oil GDP, projected at 77.4% in 2027, is expected to rise to 82% by 2030.

Rather than signalling a retreat from the country’s established energy strengths, the projections point to Azerbaijan’s broader objective of developing new sources of economic growth alongside its hydrocarbons sector. The figures underline a gradual diversification process in which manufacturing, mining, technology, services and other non-oil activities are expected to play an increasingly important role in the country’s economic development.

Thus, during the first eight months of 2026, the energy sector produced 26.2 billion manats out of 87.7 billion manats of Azerbaijan’s GDP, or nearly 30%, while also continuing to make up some 70.5% of the country’s exports worth of $21.8 billion. As far as the language employed goes, the strategy pursued is not one where hydrocarbons should become smaller in proportion, but rather all other sectors should grow more rapidly to........

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