Rajasthan Election 2023: The impending Rajasthan assembly elections pose a momentous challenge for the ruling Congress as they strive to maintain their political dominance. The party finds itself confronted with a multitude of challenges, encompassing the pervasive sentiment of anti-incumbency, internal discord, and the formidable predicament of exam paper leaks. The Congress party, despite facing challenges, can leverage certain advantageous factors to its benefit. One such factor is the united front exhibited by prominent leaders Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, who are not known to be good friends. Their collective strength can contribute to the party's overall performance. However, the six-decade trend, which shows the state alternates the government every five uears, favours the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that is now eyeing a return to power.
The Congress can rely on the outreach and banking capabilities of party chief Mallikarjun Kharge, who possesses the ability to connect with various segments of society. Furthermore, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's extensive outreach and strong mass connections can help. These factors, if effectively utilised, can potentially enhance the Congress's prospects. In a parallel vein, however, it is widely acknowledged among political analysts that the BJP holds a significantly advantageous position in the state of Rajasthan. A variety of factors that are simultaneously shaping the dynamics within the Congress party are defining the current political landscape in Rajasthan. Consequently, it appears that the upcoming battle in Rajasthan will be fiercely contested, with both sides vying for victory in a closely contested race.
5-State Assembly Elections 2023: FULL COVERAGE
Exam Paper Leaks: A Major Challenge
As the countdown to the assembly elections in Rajasthan begins, the political dynamics are poised for a shift, with a staggering 22 lakh first-time voters in the mix. While the spectre of exam paper leaks haunts the political narrative, it's crucial to note that this predicament isn't exclusive to the Congress. The BJP faced similar challenges during its tenure. However, the present Congress government, helmed by Gehlot, has been criticized for its inability to effectively address and shape the narrative surrounding these incidents.
A glaring example is the role of Education Minister Govind Singh Dotasra, who heads the Rajasthan unit of the Congress and presided over the leaks. This connection creates a narrative that significantly undermines the Congress's credibility under Gehlot's leadership. The Enforcement Directorate's raids on Congress leaders, including Dotasra, have provided ample ammunition for the BJP to exploit the situation to its advantage.
The paper leak saga, marked by the cancellation of exams and arrests, has become a recurring stain on the state's educational system. The recent cancellation of the second-grade teacher recruitment exam in December 2022 further highlights the gravity of the issue. With an unprecedented 22 lakh first-time voters in play, the Congress finds itself at a critical juncture where the handling of the paper leak scandal could wield substantial electoral consequences.
The BJP, astutely capitalising on the discontent, positions itself as the party with the solution. Promising decisive action against those responsible for paper leaks, the BJP aims to leverage this issue to garner voter support. The political landscape is charged with accusations and counter-accusations, with the potential for the youth vote to be a decisive force in reshaping the governance of the state.
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Organisational Structure: A Cause for Concern
The structural integrity of the Congress in Rajasthan appears less than optimal, with recent appointments of state unit office-bearers and district presidents occurring only months before the upcoming elections. This leaves little time for these newly appointed officials to acclimatise and establish themselves. Internal discord within the party further complicates matters, posing a significant challenge. To enhance its electoral prospects, the Congress must urgently fortify its organisational framework, ensuring cohesion among its leaders. Addressing internal conflicts is imperative, necessitating the formation of a united and proficient team capable of executing effective election campaigns. Historically, the Congress boasted a robust grassroots organisation in Rajasthan. However, the dynamics shifted after the 2018 assembly elections, marked by the leadership of Sachin Pilot, who expanded the party's grassroots reach across the state.
The subsequent infighting between Gehlot and Pilot took a toll on the party's grassroots organisation. The internal discord led to a considerable division within the organisation, as senior leaders prioritised safeguarding their respective factions rather than collectively mobilising the entire party. Consequently, the Congress now grapples with a significant organisational challenge. Rajasthan, as part of the Hindi heartland, exhibits diverse societal divisions, skillfully capitalised upon by the BJP through an assertive promotion of Hinduism. In contrast, the Congress, despite having a historical grassroots foundation, currently lacks a cohesive narrative capable of uniting these fragmented factions. Overcoming this organisational dilemma stands as a pivotal task for the Congress, especially in a political landscape where the BJP is adept at rallying diverse sections of society.
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Anti-Incumbency: A Formidable Challenge
The Gehlot-led Congress government confronts a formidable adversary in anti-incumbency. In power since 2018, the Congress faces stiff competition from the BJP, which seeks to harness public dissatisfaction with the current administration. A primary driver of anti-incumbency stems from perceived government ineptitude in combating corruption, notably highlighted by recurrent exam paper leaks that undermine the integrity of recruitment processes. These incidents not only thwart the aspirations of candidates but also erode public trust in the government's commitment to transparency. Criticism extends to the Congress's economic management and its perceived neglect of societal concerns such as unemployment, escalating living costs, and agricultural distress. This discontent intensifies anti-incumbency sentiments, providing the BJP with an opportunity to promise more efficient and responsive governance. Leveraging internal strife within the Congress, the BJP emphasises the incumbent's failures, intending to sway voters dissatisfied with the current state of affairs.
The historical precedent of power alternating between the Congress and the BJP in Rajasthan only compounds the challenges for the ruling party. The five-year oscillation in government since 1990 implies a predisposition towards change among voters. Despite the Congress's attempts to address issues, the measures have proven insufficient to assuage public concerns. Internal strife and perceived corruption have further tarnished the party's image, rendering it susceptible to the BJP's electoral challenge.
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United Front: A Factor in Favour
In the intricate landscape of Rajasthani politics, the Congress finds itself buoyed by a notable advantage: the cohesive front presented by the dynamic duo of Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. Their extensive campaign across the state has not only demonstrated unity but has the potential to serve as a significant asset for the party. The Congress must conscientiously maintain this united front, capitalising on the synergies between Gehlot and Pilot. Effectively harnessing their complementary strengths could be instrumental in securing electoral success. It is imperative for the Congress to prioritise mobilising its support base and ensuring a robust voter turnout, a factor that historically favours the party. As the saying goes, better late than never — the Congress party should persevere in nurturing and projecting this unity, as it holds the promise of positive outcomes.
Recognising the distinct qualities of each leader is paramount. Ashok Gehlot emerges as a unifier, while Sachin Pilot possesses a unique capability to mobilise the youth — a demographic that wields substantial influence. The involvement of seasoned leaders like CP Joshi and Mahesh Joshi, with their deep grassroots connections, further strengthens the Congress's position. The party must persist in its united front to instill confidence not only among the electorate but also among its steadfast supporters.
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Ashok Gehlot & Sachin Pilot Factors
In the political landscape of Rajasthan, CM Ashok Gehlot emerges as a pivotal figure for the Congress, having held the position three times consecutively. Gehlot's leadership style, characterised by extensive outreach and a strong mass connection, coupled with a well-structured programme, positions the Congress for a compelling bid for power in the upcoming elections. His leadership becomes the cornerstone upon which the party's aspirations rest.
Gehlot's policy initiatives further reinforce the Congress's commitment to addressing pressing issues. Notably, his move to reinstate the old pension scheme and provide assistance to women underscores the party's dedication to tackling key societal concerns. These initiatives not only contribute to the party's policy foundations but also showcase a proactive approach to governance.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has done the magic by tackling the discontent of senior Congress leader Sachin Pilot and making him a part of the Congress Working Committee. Pilot, a dynamic and charismatic leader, emerges as a crucial asset for the Congress in the impending Rajasthan assembly elections. His popularity, especially among the youth, and his capacity to resonate with diverse demographics position him strategically within the party's campaign.
Pilot's appeal to youth is rooted in his progressive stance and understanding of their aspirations. Advocating for education, employment, and entrepreneurship, he aligns with their vision for a promising future. This connection with the youth is pivotal for mobilising this influential voting segment, potentially tilting the election in favour of the Congress.
Beyond his youth appeal, Pilot's ability to bridge social and regional divides adds another layer of significance for the Congress. His Gujjar community roots and grasp of rural issues establish a robust support base in these areas. Moreover, his reputation as a unifying force, transcending caste and community divisions, enhances his standing.
Pilot's contribution extends beyond his mass appeal; he brings strategic acumen and a profound understanding of Rajasthan's political landscape. Identifying and addressing diverse societal concerns, his experience as a former Deputy Chief Minister provides a valuable perspective on the state's challenges.
As Rajasthan braces itself for the electoral drama, the Congress faces the imperative task of navigating through critical factors. The transformation of challenges into opportunities and leveraging inherent strengths becomes paramount for the party's success. A strategic blend of responsive governance, a united leadership, and a nuanced understanding of the electorate's pulse are prerequisites for the road to victory. The Congress must address these facets diligently to emerge triumphant in the electoral arena, securing not just power but the mandate of the people.
The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and he is a political columnist.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]
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