The political landscape of Madhya Pradesh is currently abuzz with anticipation as there is a possibility of a closely contested election between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP has been in power in Madhya Pradesh for more than two decades. However, it's undeniable that the political dynamics in the state were significantly altered when senior Congress leader from Madhya Pradesh, Jyotiraditya Scindia, defected to the BJP. This move resulted in the fall of the Kamal Nath-led Congress government in the state, leaving a lasting impact on the state's politics. In the 2023 election, the Congress appears to have an advantage, according to recent opinion polls.
The ABP-CVoter survey projected a victory for the Congress, giving the party 118-130 seats and a vote share of 44.3%, against the BJP's 99-111 seats and 42.1% vote share.
It's, however, essential to recognise that despite the survey findings there are several potential pitfalls for the Congress. In the previous election, the people of Madhya Pradesh did show an inclination towards the Congress, but the party's internal conflicts, particularly the loss of Scindia to the BJP, led to the collapse of the government. Therefore, a key challenge for the Congress is to understand the pulse of the electorate and conduct a campaign from a grassroots perspective to connect with the voters effectively. An assumption that the BJP will be defeated could prove to be overconfidence ahead of the election scheduled to be held on November 17.
5 Worrying Factors For Congress In MP
1. Lack Of Upper-Caste Support
A crucial factor that could hamper the Congress's chances of victory in the upcoming election is its diminishing connection with the upper-caste population of Madhya Pradesh. In the past, the Congress was the preferred political party for the upper caste community, but recent elections have witnessed a significant shift in this dynamic. For instance, data from CSDS poll surveys highlights this transformation. In 2008, approximately 45% of the upper caste electorate voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party, while only 19% cast their votes in favour of the Congress. Similarly, in 2013, around 59% of upper caste voters favoured the BJP, and just 24% supported the Congress. In 2018, this trend continued, with approximately 58% of the upper caste voters backing the BJP and 33% opting for the Congress.
In the current election, the Congress heavily relies on securing the support of SC/ST and OBC voters, and it appears that it has not effectively targeted the upper caste demographic. This approach may prove to be a misstep, potentially offering the BJP an opportunity to consolidate upper caste votes. The BJP's ability to garner strong support from the upper caste segment could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2023 Madhya Pradesh election. If the BJP manages to retain this support, it might compensate for any losses among other voter groups, ultimately providing the party with a substantial advantage in the election.
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2. Overdependence On SC/ST And OBCs
The Congress party's campaign clearly highlights its heavy reliance on OBCs, SCs, and ST communities. Leaders such as Rahul Gandhi, Kamal Nath, and Digvijaya Singh have emphasised this dependence in their election strategies. The party has even committed to conducting a caste survey akin to Bihar if it comes to power. However, this over-reliance on these communities poses a potential challenge for the Congress. The political landscape has evolved, and these historically supportive caste groups have become more fragmented and assertive. If the Congress fails to maintain its support, it could seriously jeopardise its electoral prospects.
There are some reasons behind the potential erosion of the Congress's backing from OBCs and Scheduled Tribes, and this may have potential consequences in the upcoming election.
It is crucial to note that the BJP in Madhya Pradesh has also garnered a substantial amount of OBC support. For instance, in 2008, the party secured approximately 41% of OBC votes, whereas the Congress received only about 27%. In 2013, the BJP garnered 44% of OBC votes compared to the Congress's 35%, and in the last election in 2018, the BJP received 48% of OBC votes while the Congress received 41%. This implies that if the Congress expects a significant shift in OBC voting patterns in this election, it might be mistaken. If such a shift doesn't materialise, it could pose a major challenge for Congress.
The Congress does have an advantage in gaining the support of the SC and ST communities, as these groups have historically shown a preference for the party. For instance, in the 2018 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, around 49% of voters from the SC community cast their ballots for the Congress, whereas only 33% supported the BJP. In the same election, approximately 40% of the ST community voted for the Congress, while the BJP received the support of only 30% of ST voters. Nevertheless, it's important to recognise that in the ever-evolving landscape of Indian politics, the preferences of these communities are also subject to change. Thus, the Congress could face challenges if there is a significant shift in these communities' voting preferences.
3. Infighting
The Congress party in Madhya Pradesh has grappled with persistent internal conflicts for a considerable span of time. These internal disputes have not only tarnished the party's performance in recent elections but also loom as a significant impediment to its prospects in the forthcoming 2023 assembly election.
There are several underlying causes behind the infighting. A prominent factor is the rivalry between the two primary factions within the party: the Kamal Nath faction and the Digvijaya Singh faction. These rival factions have been engaged in a protracted struggle for supremacy, leading to a series of internal confrontations. Additionally, the absence of a well-defined and coherent vision for the future compounds this discord. The Congress has struggled to articulate a clear ideology that can unify its members and supporters, resulting in internal disputes regarding the party's direction and strategy.
The ramifications of this internal strife within the Congress party in Madhya Pradesh have been detrimental. It has hindered the party's operational efficiency and marred its reputation, diminishing its appeal to the electorate.
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4. Overconfidence
The Congress currently holds a lead in the opinion polls for the forthcoming Madhya Pradesh assembly election in 2023. However, it is imperative for the party to not become complacent about its chances of victory. Several factors could still pose challenges for the Congress, and the party must be ready for all potential scenarios. One of the most significant threats to the Congress's prospects is the BJP's formidable organisational machinery. The BJP boasts a well-established and efficient network capable of mobilising a large voter base. In contrast, the Congress has a weaker organisational structure, potentially placing it at a disadvantage in the upcoming election.
Furthermore, the Congress should be prepared for the possibility of a closely contested election. The current opinion polls indicate a tight race between the Congress and the BJP, suggesting that the election's outcome is uncertain. The Congress must prepare itself for all potential scenarios and avoid making assumptions about victory. At this juncture, it is crucial for the Congress to concentrate on bolstering its organisational machinery. Without a strong network of dedicated workers in every constituency, winning the MP election could be an uphill battle. The party should also acknowledge that voter mobilisation is a pivotal aspect of the election campaign. While internal conflicts within the BJP may exist, the Congress cannot solely rely on these issues for victory. In sum, the Congress must remain vigilant and well-prepared for the possibility of a closely contested or neck-and-neck election in Madhya Pradesh.
5. Overreliance On Old Guards
The MP Congress finds itself heavily reliant on the leadership of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh. While both of these seasoned leaders possess extensive experience and a substantial following in the state, the party's excessive dependence on them could potentially pose a challenge in the election. There are several reasons why leaning too heavily on Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh could prove to be detrimental. Firstly, both leaders are advancing in years and may not possess the same level of vigour and dynamism they once did. Secondly, their past associations with controversies could tarnish the party's reputation and provide ammunition to opponents. Thirdly, their image as part of the old guard might not resonate with a younger electorate that craves a more vibrant and forward-looking political landscape. Should the Congress become excessively reliant on Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, it would create an opening for the BJP to exploit the party's vulnerabilities. The BJP could paint the Congress as out of sync with contemporary issues and unable to offer innovative solutions to the state's challenges.
The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and he is a political columnist.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]
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