Make sense of the news fast with Opinions' daily newsletterArrowRight
There have been months of conversation about the president’s political standing. But we are in a new moment. A number of recent polls have shown President Biden struggling in key swing states and among traditionally Democratic-leaning parts of the electorate, such as younger voters. At the same, Democratic victories in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia last week suggest Americans are fine with the Biden-led party. And we are now two months from the start of voting in the primary process, with former president Donald Trump the clear favorite in the Republican field.
How can we reconcile the seeming contradiction between an unpopular president and a popular party?
Advertisement
One explanation is that popular Democratic candidates and causes (such as abortion rights ballot measures) are winning despite Biden, not because of him. After all, purple- and red-state Democratic politicians often distance themselves from the president on the campaign trail.
Follow this authorPerry Bacon Jr.'s opinionsFollow
An alternative view is that voters don’t love Biden personally but like the Democratic Party’s approach under his leadership. For example, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) didn’t appear publicly with Biden in his successful campaign, but he emphasized infrastructure spending, one of the president’s key initiatives. So perhaps the least popular version of Bidenism is the one with Biden on the ballot, but he can still win 270 electoral votes.
A third interpretation is that Democrats are winning key races largely because of the extremism of Trumpian Republicans, so neither the unpopularity of Biden nor the popularity of Democratic pols such as Beshear matters much.
Advertisement
A fourth view is that most major-party candidates and modern presidents are fairly unpopular because of growing “negative partisanship” — people hate the opposing party but also don’t love the party they’re in. So Biden is unpopular now, but another Democratic presidential candidate would be similarly unpopular pretty soon after his or her campaign revved up.
A fifth take is that voters are specifically concerned with Biden’s age (and strangely not Trump’s), and this is an unresolvable problem for the 80-year-old incumbent but not the Democratic Party — if it chooses another candidate.
I suspect all of those explanations have some validity and none of them alone tells the complete story. But overall, the evidence suggests Biden could win an election next year if anti-Trumpism voters mobilize as they did in 2018, 2020, 2022 and this year, particularly if Trump himself is the GOP nominee. But Biden’s low poll numbers and age make him a weaker candidate than, say, Beshear, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or another younger Democrat would be. This is a view shared by some Democratic campaign consultants I talk to, even as they are wary of criticizing their party’s leader in public.
Advertisement
And it’s a real problem that Joe Biden is a political drag for Democrats — because his late career revival is based on his electoral strength. Biden wanted to be president for decades. But Democrats bypassed him repeatedly, both when he was a formal candidate (2007-2008) and when he flirted with a run (2003-2004, 2015-2016.)
In 2019 and 2020, though, the party’s officials and eventually voters embraced Biden in part because they felt an older White male candidate with a reputation for moderation would be the best way to defeat Trump. And back then, that was true. Biden was among the strongest Democratic candidates in the 2020 primary field in head-to-head polls against Trump, consistently ahead of the Republican.
Now, Biden is essentially asking the Democrats to push him forward even though he no longer gives the party a clear electoral advantage — and might in fact be an electoral liability.
Advertisement
And I don’t see any real reason they should do that. His domestic policy record is strong, but I don’t think that’s because of Biden’s legislative skills or ideology. It’s fairly likely a Pete Buttigieg administration with congressional majorities in his first two years would also have adopted a big stimulus package and a major climate change provision, for instance. Biden has been much more pro-union and economically populist than his predecessors, but that reflects the broader Democratic Party moving left on economics. The president’s foreign policy experience has been an asset at times (recognizing Russia’s intent to invade Ukraine before it happened) but not others (taking too long to move beyond a complete defense of the Israeli government’s actions after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks).
If Biden were the first woman, LGBTQ person or person of color as president, there would be a strong case to reelect him, to show the country embraces leaders who aren’t straight White men. But there’s not that kind of symbolic or cultural case for his second term, either.
Also, Biden’s age is a real issue. He is more likely than someone in their 50s to have a health incident in the midst of next year’s campaign or his second term. And even if he doesn’t, he must fight deeply ingrained voter anxieties about his age.
Advertisement
I would still consider Biden a narrow favorite over Trump, particularly if the former president is convicted of some of the dozens of charges against him. But if Trump isn’t the GOP nominee, a Biden race against any other Republican would be very tough. Biden’s best and perhaps only winning message will be, “I am not Trump.” In contrast, Whitmer or Beshear could make a broader case for themselves against, say, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida or former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley.
I think it’s generally understood that a Biden 2024 campaign will be a difficult lift for the Democratic Party. But there are two obvious potential challenges if he bows out: a primary that divides the party and hobbles it before the general election, or a primary that anoints an even-weaker candidate.
Neither of those scenarios is particularly likely. In recent elections, the party with the more fractious presidential primary (Republicans in 2000, Democrats in 2008, Republicans in 2016, Democrats in 2020) has won in the general election more times than it lost (Democrats in 2004, Republicans in 2012). An incumbent president is an asset — if that incumbent president isn’t extremely unpopular, as was the case in 2004 and 2012 but not 2020.
Advertisement
I seriously doubt a Democratic primary results in a candidate worse positioned than Biden. Even Vice President Harris, about as unpopular as Biden, did slightly better than him in matchups against Trump in recent New York Times-Siena College polls. Whitmer, Beshear, Govs. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Robert P. Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Raphael G. Warnock of Georgia — the Democratic bench is full of people with strong recent electoral performances.
So the case to move on from Biden is strong. The hard part is making it happen.
The official Democratic National Committee is fairly weak. But there is something of a broader, unofficial Democratic Party that is influential: former and current elected officials, major donors, media outlets such as MSNBC. This party apparatus is strongly behind Biden running in 2024.
Advertisement
So when David Axelrod, who was a senior adviser on Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, recently suggested that Biden consider not running in 2024, he quickly found himself under fire from the president’s allies. If you are Cooper, Whitmer, Pritzker or another Democrat who might want to be president, the danger of starting a campaign now is that this apparatus might not only forcefully defend Biden, making it harder for you to win the 2024 primary, but also cast you as disloyal for challenging the incumbent president, making it harder for you to be a viable candidate in a future primary.
But Biden is not going to step aside without prodding. And while Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) has entered the race, none of the really strong potential Democratic candidates for 2028 or the future will launch a candidacy if the entire party apparatus is against it. A collection of influential figures, such as Axelrod and some major donors, would need to publicly urge Biden not to run and/or start backing someone else.
That might sound fanciful. But such coordination by party leaders isn’t impossible. It happened less than four years ago. After Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) won the Nevada primary and seemed poised to win the Democratic nomination, Biden received a slew of endorsements from current and former officials in the party, many of whom bluntly stated that Biden was a much better candidate for the general election than Sanders. An anti-Biden effort could be similarly effective, particularly because some polls show a majority of Democratic voters would prefer a different 2024 candidate.
Advertisement
And it’s not too late. The filing deadline for 2024 presidential candidates has only passed in a few states. Even in those states, voters could write in a candidate, and that person could win. If the Democratic Party actually wanted to nominate someone else, it could.
The Biden presidency came about for one single reason: his perceived electoral strength. He’s not looking electorally strong now — and many other Democratic politicians are better positioned for a successful 2024 presidential campaign.
Share Comments
Popular opinions articles
HAND CURATED
- Opinion|Could this man bring down Putin?November 7, 2023Opinion|Could this man bring down Putin?November 7, 2023
- Opinion|Readers respond to a Hamas cartoonNovember 8, 2023Opinion|Readers respond to a Hamas cartoonNovember 8, 2023
- Opinion|I’m tired of disability activists pretending my son doesn’t existNovember 8, 2023Opinion|I’m tired of disability activists pretending my son doesn’t existNovember 8, 2023
View 3 more stories
Loading...
A Biden 2024 campaign isn’t worth the added difficulty that comes from his deep unpopularity. The Democratic Party should strongly consider embracing another candidate — or at least a truly open primary.
There have been months of conversation about the president’s political standing. But we are in a new moment. A number of recent polls have shown President Biden struggling in key swing states and among traditionally Democratic-leaning parts of the electorate, such as younger voters. At the same, Democratic victories in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia last week suggest Americans are fine with the Biden-led party. And we are now two months from the start of voting in the primary process, with former president Donald Trump the clear favorite in the Republican field.
How can we reconcile the seeming contradiction between an unpopular president and a popular party?
One explanation is that popular Democratic candidates and causes (such as abortion rights ballot measures) are winning despite Biden, not because of him. After all, purple- and red-state Democratic politicians often distance themselves from the president on the campaign trail.
An alternative view is that voters don’t love Biden personally but like the Democratic Party’s approach under his leadership. For example, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) didn’t appear publicly with Biden in his successful campaign, but he emphasized infrastructure spending, one of the president’s key initiatives. So perhaps the least popular version of Bidenism is the one with Biden on the ballot, but he can still win 270 electoral votes.
A third interpretation is that Democrats are winning key races largely because of the extremism of Trumpian Republicans, so neither the unpopularity of Biden nor the popularity of Democratic pols such as Beshear matters much.
A fourth view is that most major-party candidates and modern presidents are fairly unpopular because of growing “negative partisanship” — people hate the opposing party but also don’t love the party they’re in. So Biden is unpopular now, but another Democratic presidential candidate would be similarly unpopular pretty soon after his or her campaign revved up.
A fifth take is that voters are specifically concerned with Biden’s age (and strangely not Trump’s), and this is an unresolvable problem for the 80-year-old incumbent but not the Democratic Party — if it chooses another candidate.
I suspect all of those explanations have some validity and none of them alone tells the complete story. But overall, the evidence suggests Biden could win an election next year if anti-Trumpism voters mobilize as they did in 2018, 2020, 2022 and this year, particularly if Trump himself is the GOP nominee. But Biden’s low poll numbers and age make him a weaker candidate than, say, Beshear, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or another younger Democrat would be. This is a view shared by some Democratic campaign consultants I talk to, even as they are wary of criticizing their party’s leader in public.
And it’s a real problem that Joe Biden is a political drag for Democrats — because his late career revival is based on his electoral strength. Biden wanted to be president for decades. But Democrats bypassed him repeatedly, both when he was a formal candidate (2007-2008) and when he flirted with a run (2003-2004, 2015-2016.)
In 2019 and 2020, though, the party’s officials and eventually voters embraced Biden in part because they felt an older White male candidate with a reputation for moderation would be the best way to defeat Trump. And back then, that was true. Biden was among the strongest Democratic candidates in the 2020 primary field in head-to-head polls against Trump, consistently ahead of the Republican.
Now, Biden is essentially asking the Democrats to push him forward even though he no longer gives the party a clear electoral advantage — and might in fact be an electoral liability.
And I don’t see any real reason they should do that. His domestic policy record is strong, but I don’t think that’s because of Biden’s legislative skills or ideology. It’s fairly likely a Pete Buttigieg administration with congressional majorities in his first two years would also have adopted a big stimulus package and a major climate change provision, for instance. Biden has been much more pro-union and economically populist than his predecessors, but that reflects the broader Democratic Party moving left on economics. The president’s foreign policy experience has been an asset at times (recognizing Russia’s intent to invade Ukraine before it happened) but not others (taking too long to move beyond a complete defense of the Israeli government’s actions after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks).
If Biden were the first woman, LGBTQ person or person of color as president, there would be a strong case to reelect him, to show the country embraces leaders who aren’t straight White men. But there’s not that kind of symbolic or cultural case for his second term, either.
Also, Biden’s age is a real issue. He is more likely than someone in their 50s to have a health incident in the midst of next year’s campaign or his second term. And even if he doesn’t, he must fight deeply ingrained voter anxieties about his age.
I would still consider Biden a narrow favorite over Trump, particularly if the former president is convicted of some of the dozens of charges against him. But if Trump isn’t the GOP nominee, a Biden race against any other Republican would be very tough. Biden’s best and perhaps only winning message will be, “I am not Trump.” In contrast, Whitmer or Beshear could make a broader case for themselves against, say, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida or former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley.
I think it’s generally understood that a Biden 2024 campaign will be a difficult lift for the Democratic Party. But there are two obvious potential challenges if he bows out: a primary that divides the party and hobbles it before the general election, or a primary that anoints an even-weaker candidate.
Neither of those scenarios is particularly likely. In recent elections, the party with the more fractious presidential primary (Republicans in 2000, Democrats in 2008, Republicans in 2016, Democrats in 2020) has won in the general election more times than it lost (Democrats in 2004, Republicans in 2012). An incumbent president is an asset — if that incumbent president isn’t extremely unpopular, as was the case in 2004 and 2012 but not 2020.
I seriously doubt a Democratic primary results in a candidate worse positioned than Biden. Even Vice President Harris, about as unpopular as Biden, did slightly better than him in matchups against Trump in recent New York Times-Siena College polls. Whitmer, Beshear, Govs. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Robert P. Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Raphael G. Warnock of Georgia — the Democratic bench is full of people with strong recent electoral performances.
So the case to move on from Biden is strong. The hard part is making it happen.
The official Democratic National Committee is fairly weak. But there is something of a broader, unofficial Democratic Party that is influential: former and current elected officials, major donors, media outlets such as MSNBC. This party apparatus is strongly behind Biden running in 2024.
So when David Axelrod, who was a senior adviser on Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, recently suggested that Biden consider not running in 2024, he quickly found himself under fire from the president’s allies. If you are Cooper, Whitmer, Pritzker or another Democrat who might want to be president, the danger of starting a campaign now is that this apparatus might not only forcefully defend Biden, making it harder for you to win the 2024 primary, but also cast you as disloyal for challenging the incumbent president, making it harder for you to be a viable candidate in a future primary.
But Biden is not going to step aside without prodding. And while Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) has entered the race, none of the really strong potential Democratic candidates for 2028 or the future will launch a candidacy if the entire party apparatus is against it. A collection of influential figures, such as Axelrod and some major donors, would need to publicly urge Biden not to run and/or start backing someone else.
That might sound fanciful. But such coordination by party leaders isn’t impossible. It happened less than four years ago. After Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) won the Nevada primary and seemed poised to win the Democratic nomination, Biden received a slew of endorsements from current and former officials in the party, many of whom bluntly stated that Biden was a much better candidate for the general election than Sanders. An anti-Biden effort could be similarly effective, particularly because some polls show a majority of Democratic voters would prefer a different 2024 candidate.
And it’s not too late. The filing deadline for 2024 presidential candidates has only passed in a few states. Even in those states, voters could write in a candidate, and that person could win. If the Democratic Party actually wanted to nominate someone else, it could.
The Biden presidency came about for one single reason: his perceived electoral strength. He’s not looking electorally strong now — and many other Democratic politicians are better positioned for a successful 2024 presidential campaign.
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Andrew Mitrovica
Mort Laitner
Rami G Khouri
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Nikkei Editorial
visit website
