Recent U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly tempted to authorize provocations targeting NATO states. Perhaps even including a limited military incursion designed to test the alliance. CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unusual visit to Moscow this week added to the alarm. According to the Wall Street Journal, Ratcliffe warned Russian officials against escalating against NATO members, particularly the Baltic states.

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Perhaps. We need to remember that Russia is fighting a grinding war in Ukraine, sending more of its troops to die (nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the war began in February 2022). That means the most plausible Russian challenge today is not columns of tanks rolling toward........

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