Key takeaways:

• The US has been bombing alleged drug boats near Venezuela since September, while building up military forces in the region to a level not seen since the Cold War.

• Venezuela has been a foe of the US for decades, and in recent years the country has slipped into economic distress, violence, and autocracy. As a socialist regime that is a major source of migrants and has ties to drug trafficking, it’s on the Trump administration’s radar for several reasons.

• An Iraq-style ground invasion and occupation is very unlikely, but a military campaign against Venezuela could involve airstrikes and raids targeting Venezuela’s drug cartels — or potentially the government itself.

Since the early fall, the US has been building up its military forces in the Caribbean and launching airstrikes on alleged drug boats, fueling speculation that it is planning a major military operation against the government of Venezuela.

And if the past few days are any indication, the situation may be reaching a tipping point.

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the “airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered closed, though he did not explain what this meant and the US does not appear to have taken any actual steps to enforce a no-fly zone over the country. Trump said last week that the US will “very soon” begin taking action against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers on land. Given that the US considers Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to be the head of a “narcoterrorist cartel,” this could very well include action against the Venezuelan government and military.

Trump recently spoke by phone with Maduro and, according to the Miami Herald, told him he could save himself and his family by giving up power and leaving the country. The Washington Post also reported that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth authorized a second strike to kill survivors of an initial attack on a suspected drug boat on September 2, an action legal experts say could be considered murder under the laws of armed conflict.

Trump has not yet committed to military action, but has said he believes Maduro’s “days are numbered.” It’s been a strange sort of march to war, in which some of the justifications simply don’t make much sense and the ultimate goal of the operation isn’t always clear. But how did we get here? And where might this all be headed?

What has the US military been up to in the Caribbean?

The US carried out its first strike against an alleged drug boat on September 2 in the Caribbean between Venezuela and Trinidad........

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