Democrats’ real plan to control Congress again

New York’s socialist insurgents are getting the headlines. But in swing House districts, the establishment has been getting its way.

The political world is in a frenzy over left-wing challengers’ wins in New York City’s primaries Tuesday.

Leftists are overjoyed, and think they’re beating back the Democratic establishment. Many on the right and center are horrified, arguing extremists are taking over the party.

And yet if you look past deep blue urban areas — and toward the swing House districts that will actually determine which party wins a majority in November — a very different story is unfolding, one that could have a much bigger impact on America.

Just a few miles north of the city, in the Hudson Valley, lies a GOP-held district that’s one of Democrats’ top targets. The winner of this week’s primary there was Cait Conley, an Army veteran and Biden administration staffer who had the support of much of the Democratic Party’s establishment. She won easily, while the most notable progressive challenger in the race pulled just 15 percent of the vote.

That’s just part of a larger pattern throughout the country this year: In the districts with the most competitive general elections ahead, the Democratic establishment has mostly seen its preferred nominees win.

“Most of these Democratic candidates in these toss-up, top-tier districts are fairly conventional,” Jacob Rubashkin, the deputy editor of the publication Inside Elections, told me. “That’s not a judgmental statement on them at all. But it is rarer cases where you’ve got a candidate who breaks the mold a little bit.”

There have been about two dozen primaries so far in districts that could swing in November. (The exact count depends on how generous your definition of “swing district” is.) So far, only two of those primaries have resulted in the establishment candidates backed by the DCCC — the Democrats’ House campaign committee — losing to a challenger from further left. In fact, national left groups didn’t even participate in many swing district contests at all, preferring to prioritize blue-district battles they had a better chance of winning.

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