A little help, please?
That would be the plea I’d make if I were Auston Matthews, or any of the Leafs’ so-called Core Four forwards for that matter. Because lost amid Toronto’s grinding, frequently unimpressive 5-4-2 start to the season has been a marked slowdown in contributions from, well, most of the rest of the roster.
The Maple Leafs are one of a handful of teams who have realized the luxury of falling into bona fide superstar talent, starting with the aforementioned Matthews, who again leads the NHL in goals (11).
Teams like Toronto (Edmonton is another great example) know they have a gift at the top of their roster: elite weaponry capable of steamrolling the opposition on most nights.
That benefit can come at the marginal cost of cap flexibility further down the lineup. With limited cap to play with across the rest of the roster, front offices need to be creative in how they build depth competency. Not everyone can build a four-line juggernaut like the defending champs in Vegas, but you should be able to dress lines and defensive pairings that can keep their head above water.
Toronto has had pockets of production from their depth players in recent years, more than enough to routinely lift this team well up the NHL regular-season standings. But this season, that hasn’t been the case. Toronto’s opening month has been marked by two distinct scenarios: their top players score and the Leafs win, or Toronto is blown off the ice in uninspiring fashion.
Consider Toronto’s offensive production over the first month of the season compared to prior periods. While you’d expect their most expensive forwards to be contributing in the manner they are, it’s the rest of the lineup that’s doing a lot of nothing. That’s a considerable change from years past, years where Toronto’s cap situation similarly skewed heavily towards their core forwards:
Rarely does a single graph give you so much of the story, but this qualifies. Not only do Toronto’s big four forwards continue to produce, they are actually doing so at six-year highs when adjusted for usage – and this timeline covers all six seasons post-John Tavares’ signing. Compare that to the rest of the roster, and you have a group of skaters at a six-year low.
It goes without saying that Toronto’s deadliest forwards are paid to produce at rates materially higher than the rest of the roster, and goal scoring is just one piece of the equation. But the reality is Toronto has, at least so far this season, been a wholly ineffective offence whenever their top unit is off the ice. Even for a team that’s not expecting much from their depth players, a near 50 per cent drawdown in production versus prior years is simply untenable. That’s true for any lineup in the league.
And it’s not just the individual offensive component that’s of concern. If you look at expected goal rates – which can capture game flow with a given player on the ice, as well as desensitize data that’s very sensitive to shooting and save percentage rates this early in the year – you see a similar trend. Toronto’s marquee players are generally outplaying their opponents at even strength, and that’s generally correlated to positive goal differentials for the Core Four, with only William Nylander (-1) being outscored so far this year.
The rest of the group, and most notably the team’s bottom-six forwards, are producing concerning results.
In similar correlation, those ugly expected goal rates have translated meaningfully to negative goal differentials. Forward Ryan Reaves is already eight goals in the red this year; defencemen Jake McCabe and John Klingberg are both four goals underwater, as is newly signed depth forward Noah Gregor.
The good news for Toronto is that the Atlantic Division hasn’t turned into a Goliath quite yet. Two teams expected to be on the upswing in Buffalo and Ottawa have dealt with even more turmoil to start this year, and absent the white-hot Boston Bruins (9-1-1), Toronto should be equipped to gain in the standings after a slow start.
The bad news for Toronto is that they have been outscored on the year despite getting fantastic production from their best players.
Absent a meaningful turnaround from the rest of the roster, one wonders if new general manager Brad Treliving will be an early shopper on the trade block. Because right now, it’s just not good enough for a lineup that should have Stanley Cup aspirations.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference
Maple Leafs’ depth has disappointed early
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06.11.2023
A little help, please?
That would be the plea I’d make if I were Auston Matthews, or any of the Leafs’ so-called Core Four forwards for that matter. Because lost amid Toronto’s grinding, frequently unimpressive 5-4-2 start to the season has been a marked slowdown in contributions from, well, most of the rest of the roster.
The Maple Leafs are one of a handful of teams who have realized the luxury of falling into bona fide superstar talent, starting with the aforementioned Matthews, who again leads the NHL in goals (11).
Teams like Toronto (Edmonton is another great example) know they have a gift at the top of their roster: elite weaponry capable of steamrolling the opposition on most nights.
That benefit can come at the marginal cost of cap flexibility further down the lineup. With limited cap to play with across the rest of the roster, front offices need to be creative in how they build depth competency. Not everyone can build a four-line juggernaut like the defending champs in Vegas, but you should be able to dress lines and defensive pairings that can keep their head above water.
Toronto has had........
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