Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump appears at Coastal Carolina University on Saturday in Conway, S.C. The race on Long Island Tuesday to replace Congressman George Santos might have some big tea leaves for how Donald Trump would do in November nationwide.
Sorry election deniers, but Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential race because he failed to win in places like Halfmoon.
The Saratoga County town is solid ground for Republicans, generally speaking. And Trump won there in 2016 by about 700 votes, a margin that helped him carry the county.
No surprise in that, really.
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But four years later, with suburban voters souring on Trump around the country, Joe Biden won Halfmoon by roughly 500 votes — and won Saratoga County, too.
As I wrote at the time, Trump’s suburban struggles were the story of the 2020 race, despite his phony-baloney claims of a stolen election. If a Republican presidential candidate can’t win in places like Halfmoon, he can’t win, period.
Well, here we are on the cusp of a Biden-Trump rematch — God help us — in which the suburbs will again be key. That’s particularly true in swing states, of course.
So, a question: Will Trump do better in suburbia?
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Sadly, my crystal ball is out of service, so I can’t say for sure. But recent Siena College Research Institute polling of New York’s third congressional district, the one holding a special election Tuesday to replace the fabulist George Santos, suggests Trump could be in decent shape. Electorally, I mean.
Siena’s poll showed Democrat Tom Suozzi with a narrow, four-point lead over Republican Mazi Pilip. But it also showed Trump beating Biden in the suburban district by five percentage points.
OK, that result comes with a big caveat: The poll was weighted to reflect Tuesday’s likely electorate instead of the much larger one that typically turns out for presidential races. Nevertheless, it is still an alarming result for the president and Democrats.
“Ten percent of Suozzi voters said they will vote for Trump,” said Don Levy, director of Siena’s polling. “That’s not a good recipe for Joe Biden.”
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It certainly isn’t. And that’s hardly the only warning side for Biden. A recent NBC News poll, for example, has Biden losing to Trump by five points nationally — and that’s its most comforting finding for Democrats.
More alarming from the blue perspective is that the poll also showed Trump with a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, and a 23-point advantage on “having the necessary mental and physical health to be president.”
Biden is also well behind on nearly every issue, with Trump having the edge on securing the border (plus 35), handling the economy (plus 22), dealing with crime and violence (plus 21), and improving America’s standing in the world (plus 11).
As it happens, those are the issues considered most at play in the Long Island special election. If Pilip wins Tuesday, expect loud Democratic caterwauling, if not outright panic.
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But even if Suozzi does pull this one out, there’s still ample evidence that Biden is in real trouble. There are serious Jimmy Carter vibes to his candidacy.
Fortunately for him, the presumptive Republican nominee is Trump, who is certain to spend the next nine months reminding suburban voters why they don’t like him. The man is a walking, talking political liability, ready to say something explosively stupid at any moment.
Meanwhile, footage of the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol will be the most effective Democratic campaign ad since Lyndon Johnson showed Americans that sweet girl picking at a flower. Trump struggled in the suburbs even before he tried to overturn an election.
On the flip side, the Siena and NBC polls were taken before special counsel Robert Hur renewed concerns about Biden’s handling of classified documents and, more importantly, his fitness. Biden, the Hur report said, is a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
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Say what you will about Hur’s comments — and I’d say prosecutors should keep opinions to themselves — but the report is only the latest evidence that Biden shouldn’t be running and is not up for the coming campaign. Trump shouldn’t be running either, yet here we are. Doomed.
Well, call me an optimist, but I remain convinced that somehow the contest will not really be a Biden vs. Trump rerun, that one or the other will not be among the choices in November.
How that happens, I don’t know. I’d presume Biden is the one more likely to step (or be pushed) aside but who knows? Like I said, the crystal ball is down.
But a 2020 presidential rematch is not the election America wants, and it shouldn’t be the election we get. Voters in Halfmoon need a better choice. We all do.
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