2026 is a tipping point year.

That’s not because we should expect a coming confrontation between the two biggest powers, the U.S. and China. Nor are tensions between the U.S. and Russia likely to spiral out of control this year. Instead, 2026 looks set to be a time of great geopolitical uncertainty, because the U.S. is unwinding its own global order.

What began as tactical norm-breaking has become a system-level transformation: President Donald Trump’s attempt to systematically dismantle the checks on his power, capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his domestic enemies. With many of the guardrails that held in Trump’s first term now buckling, we can no longer say with confidence what kind of political system the U.S. will be when this revolution is over. Ultimately, the revolution is more likely to fail than succeed, but there will be no going back to the status quo. The U.S. will be the principal source of global risk this year.

A Minute of Your Time: Trump’s Potential Next Targets After Venezuela

The defining technologies of the 21st century run on electrons: EVs, drones, robots, batteries, AI. All require the “electric stack.” China has mastered it, becoming the first “electrostate.” The U.S. is ceding it, cementing the country’s status as the world’s largest petrostate. In 2026, that divergence will become impossible to ignore. While Washington asks countries to buy 20th-century energy, Beijing offers 21st-century infrastructure at knockoff prices. Emerging markets will increasingly favor China’s offering. The cumulative effect is a geopolitical turning point: A growing share of the world’s energy, mobility, and industrial systems will be built on Chinese foundations, bringing Beijing commercial benefits and influence that soft power alone could never deliver. The AI race raises the stakes—the U.S. may build the best models, but China may win the market if it can power and deploy AI at scale.

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President Trump is reviving and reinterpreting the logic of the Monroe Doctrine in an effort to assert U.S. primacy over the Western Hemisphere. The big news this year is Venezuela, where Washington’s escalating regime-change campaign has resulted in a headline win for Trump with Nicolás Maduro ’s ouster and trial in the........

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