Picture this: after being defeated in his bid for re-election, a president refuses to concede, spreads lies about voter fraud and calls upon supporters to overturn the results. Four years later, half the country is still loyal to the man, and those voters ultimately pave the way for his return to power. This may conjure images of President Donald Trump and the United States in 2021.  But what I am describing here is Brazil’s recent elections on Oct. 4.

Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, who plotted a coup to remain in power in 2022, is serving 27 years for crimes against democracy. So he picked his oldest son, Flávio Bolsonaro, to run on his behalf. Brazil’s current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won 45% of the vote. Bolsonaro Jr. did better, receiving 47% of the vote. Yet both fell short of the 50% required for a clear victory, which forced a runoff to be held on Oct. 25. With 56 million Brazilians voting for Bolsonaro Jr., the Brazilian far-right is again close to gaining control of the presidency after the runoff.

In theory, Bolsonaro Jr. should never have come this close. He has spent his entire adult life in elected office, first as a state legislator in Rio de Janeiro and then as a senator. He has little of the charisma that made his father a phenomenon. His platform offers more slogans than proposals. He has spent years fending off corruption allegations, most notably involving a salary-kickback scheme in his old legislative office and ties to local criminal gangs in Rio.

To add insult to injury, he was recently found to have received millions from Daniel Vorcaro, a former banker who is at the center of Brazil’s biggest financial scandal. Yet Bolsonaro Jr. has a real chance of being elected the next president. How did Brazil get here?

Brazil’s transformation

President Lula, who is running for a fourth term, is widely regarded as a champion of job creation and poverty reduction in Brazil. His critics argue that many Brazilians hate him for being crooked: in 2017, he was convicted and jailed on corruption charges, which were later annulled. But as Bolsonaro Jr.’s trajectory shows, the Bolsonaro family can hardly come across as........

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