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Bengal’s second and final phase of polling is today and it is undeniable that a striking demographic paradox has taken shape in the campaigns leading up to the day. Muslims constitute more than 27% of the state’s population according to the 2011 Census, with especially high concentrations in border districts such as Murshidabad and Malda. Yet, an analysis of the finalised 2026 candidate lists and prevailing electoral dynamics suggests that the upcoming legislative assembly could witness its lowest Muslim representation in over two decades. 

The scale of this possible decline becomes clearer when viewed historically. In 2006, during the final phase of Left Front rule, the West Bengal assembly had 46 Muslim MLAs. After the Trinamool Congress (TMC) came to power, this number rose to 59 in 2011 and remained relatively high at 56 in 2016. The 2021 election, however, marked a sharp reversal. With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the principal opposition and the election becoming intensely polarised, Muslim representation fell to 42 MLAs – 41 from the TMC and one from the Indian Secular Front (ISF). This pushed Muslim representation below even the 2006 level.

Heading into 2026, the structural ceiling on Muslim representation appears to have become even tighter. The BJP’s candidate strategy continues to exclude Muslims altogether, with zero Muslim candidates among its nominees. This means that every BJP victory automatically removes the possibility of a Muslim MLA from that constituency.

At the same time, the ruling TMC appears to have adopted a more cautious approach in response to aggressive communal polarisation. It has fielded 47 Muslim candidates, amounting to just 16.15 percent of its total nominations, far below the community’s share in the state’s population. Since the TMC remains the principal party capable of forming the government, this limited allocation places a hard cap on........

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