On sober reflection, after ditching the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan and switching back to the BJP’s side just before the upcoming parliament election, in an opportunistic move that brought him widespread opprobrium, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar may find that his side of the ledger is now wholly in the red – and that it is the BJP which is in the drivers’ seat.
This is as far as the NDA goes, not the overall politics of Bihar. In the wider politics of the state, it is the young Tejaswi Yadav, RJD leader and until recently the deputy chief minister, who has emerged yet again as the icon of the youth. Tejaswi has come to mean the harbinger of jobs.
In the Assembly election of 2020, the young Yadav, then still wet behind his ears, had run a high-voltage campaign, promising jobs. He came up trumps, leading his party to the number one position in the legislature, with the BJP a very close second. Nitish Kumar was a distant third, after having been comprehensively undermined by the BJP through Chirag Pawan, the ambitious but in many ways hamstrung son of the late LJP leader Ramvilas Pawan.
In 2020, Nitish fared distinctly worse than in 2015 when he had partnered RJD, then led by the redoubtable Laloo Yadav, pushing the BJP to the third spot. Tejaswi delivered the goods practically single-handedly in 2020. His stalwart father was in prison. Fortunately for the army of the Bihar unemployed, Tejaswi, as the deputy CM, also delivered on jobs – recruiting some four lakh youth. This is important political capital. It is the subject of conversation in the state.
Tejashwi Yadav. Photo: X (Twitter)/@yadavtejashwi
The BJP and its dreadfully opportunistic – and stale – ally Nitish do not have an effective counter. The Modi regime at the Centre was extravagant on job promises, but has not much to show on that count in its ten years in office. In Nitish’s long innings as CM, the record is, if anything, worse. The issue is likely to matter in the Lok Sabha election, which is around the corner, and in the state Assembly polls too.
These are due next year but the speculation is that Nitish would like it this year so that he can continue being CM since it is amply clear to him that, in the company of the BJP, he is out of the race for Prime Minister – his long-nurtured ambition. The BJP has evidently gone along with the idea of early state polls in order to make him defect. Some think this factor was a key reason for Nitish’s somersault.
When he was in the mahagathbandhan with RJD and Congress, it was all too clear that the deputy CM would take over from the CM at the first opportunity and the CM will make a bid for PM. Nitish’s shelf life as CM was rapidly shrinking. Nitish leaving the opposition INDIA alliance in a hurry, in a volte face of comical proportions, owes to the fact that some elements in that grouping – such as Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal – had negative interest in the Bihar CM angling for PM, and they made this plain at a meeting of the alliance principals.
We don’t know whether the plan is to hold the Assembly election along with the parliament polls. But no matter when the state election is held, the BJP is likely to push for its own CM and not this time prop up a politician whose brand value has long faded. This will amount to double-crossing Nitish, though such a manoeuvre no longer appears to carry a cost.
Bihar is the only major state in North India where there has never been a BJP chief minister, although the party has a sizeable urban base. Overall, it has grown on a sustained basis. Therefore, its ambition may not be wholly misplaced, although the RJD under Tejaswi, with Laloo Yadav as talisman, remains Bihar’s first party with a sturdy social base and sturdy allies in the Congress and all shades of Left.
As voting blocs go, Nitish’s biggest loss would be the loss of the Muslim support this time around. At 15 to 16 per cent of the state population, the Muslim voter is important. For a variety of reasons, it respected Nitish earlier in spite of his association with BJP and voted for his party’s candidates. That period seems to be historically over. The absence of a substantial chunk of traditional support can raise questions among other supporters whether they should waste their vote on Nitish’s party. EBC for instance, a section of which (for example, the Koeris) are already linked to BJP, are evidently Nitish’s hoped for catchment area – but this time around their allegiance is unlikely to be fully assured.
On January 28, CM Nitish Kumar dived into bed with BJP and is already thought to be having difficulties. The two BJP deputy CMs named may be seen as having the least affection for him (past angst) among the BJP leaders of Bihar. There is also thought to be a serious squabble over the post of home minister. The BJP wants this portfolio and Nitish is reticent. There should be no surprise if a section of Nitish’s JD(U) defects to the BJP, finding no purchase in being on the losing CM’s side. Something similar could hold for some Lohia followers who may find greater appeal in RJD, given the overall situation. Altogether a difficult time for the CM of Bihar. He does indeed wear a crown of thorns.
Anand K. Sahay is a political commentator based in New Delhi.
How Has the Bihar Political Landscape Changed Since Nitish Kumar's Crossover to the BJP?
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06.02.2024
On sober reflection, after ditching the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan and switching back to the BJP’s side just before the upcoming parliament election, in an opportunistic move that brought him widespread opprobrium, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar may find that his side of the ledger is now wholly in the red – and that it is the BJP which is in the drivers’ seat.
This is as far as the NDA goes, not the overall politics of Bihar. In the wider politics of the state, it is the young Tejaswi Yadav, RJD leader and until recently the deputy chief minister, who has emerged yet again as the icon of the youth. Tejaswi has come to mean the harbinger of jobs.
In the Assembly election of 2020, the young Yadav, then still wet behind his ears, had run a high-voltage campaign, promising jobs. He came up trumps, leading his party to the number one position in the legislature, with the BJP a very close second. Nitish Kumar was a distant third, after having been comprehensively undermined by the BJP through Chirag Pawan, the ambitious but in many ways hamstrung son of the late LJP leader Ramvilas Pawan.
In 2020, Nitish fared distinctly worse than in 2015 when he had partnered RJD, then led by the redoubtable Laloo Yadav, pushing the BJP to the third spot. Tejaswi delivered the goods practically........
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