There are seven major polling firms in Israel: Lazar, Filber, Kantar, Maagar Mochot, Migdam, Yossi Taktika, and Direct Polls. Five of these seven firms show a consistent stalemate between the two blocs while two, Filber and Direct Polls, show a comfortable coalition victory.

The two groups of polling are mostly on the same page. The average aggregate from the five-group and the two-group for Otzmah Yehudit (8.8:7.5), Shas (9:10), UTJ (7.2:8.5), Yisrael Beitanu (8.6:8), Democrats (9.4:9.5), Yashar (13.6:11.5), and the combined Joint List parties (10:12.5) are all within the margin of error.

The average for the coalition parties not including the Likud and Religious Zionism and the opposition parties not including Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid are remarkably similar; 25:26 and 41:41.5, respectively.

The issues arise starting with the two borderline cases; Yesh Atid and Religious Zionism. The five-group has Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid at an average of six mandates while the two-group has Yesh Atid under the 3.25% electoral threshold. At the same time, the five-group has Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism under the threshold with the two-group putting the list at a consistent four mandates.

With Religious Zionism likely to return to a joint list with Otzmah Yehudit and Noam ahead of the upcoming elections and Yesh Atid comparatively less likely to make a similar joint-list move, election day will almost certainly look more like the Filber and Direct polling in this regard.

The biggest discrepancy between the two groups is in polling the Likud and Bennett 2026. The five-group has the Likud at an average of 25.2 and Bennett 2026 at 20.2, with the two-group showing the Likud at 34.5 and Bennett 2026 at 12.

Filber and Direct, which formerly operated as a single firm, claim to focus their polling on “high-intention voters.” This has been a major weakness of Naftali Bennett over his political career as he has consistently overpolled and underperformed on election day.

In 2013, Bennett’s Jewish Home polled as high as 18 mandates before only winning 12. In 2015 Jewish Home polled as high as 20 seats before only winning eight. In April 2019, Bennett’s New Right party polled as high as nine seats before missing the electoral threshold entirely. In 2020, Bennett’s Yamina party polled as high as 10 mandates before winning only six. In 2021 Yamina polled as high as 24 seats before only winning seven.

The pattern throughout his career is that voters often flirt with Naftali Bennett, but they rarely take him home. Accounting for voter certainty rather than just voter opinion does much to explain the polling discrepancy between the two groups regarding Bennett 2026 and the Likud.

While they are in the minority, it’s more likely that election day will look more like Filber and Direct Polls than like Lazar, Kantar, Maagar Mochot, Migdam, or Yossi Taktika. Religious Zionism’s almost certain entrance into a joint list with Otzmah Yehudit will ensure its 3-5 mandates are included in the next Knesset while Yesh Atid’s far murkier entrance into a joint list or into the Knesset in an independent run turn its mandates into an open question, while Naftali Bennett’s routinely overinflated polling is again unlikely to materialize in real votes.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)