Iran’s combat operation with the United States has exposed the limits of old security assumptions—and pushed Arab states closer to a regional order anchored by Israeli strength.

For decades, the monarchies of the Persian Gulf rested their security on a familiar formula: American military protection, vast energy wealth, and the containment of revolutionary Iran. The war with Tehran has not overturned that formula entirely. But it has transformed the balance within it. Israel now sits far closer to the center of the region’s strategic architecture.

The conflict began as a bold American-Israeli effort to cripple Iran’s nuclear and military apparatus. In purely military terms, the campaign demonstrated Israel’s growing reach and operational sophistication. Iranian command structures were severely damaged, key facilities were hit, and Tehran’s aura of deterrence was punctured. For many Gulf rulers, long alarmed by Iran’s regional ambitions and nuclear program, that outcome was privately welcomed.

Yet the war also exposed how vulnerable the Gulf states themselves remain.........

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