In early January, the Islamic Republic was reeling. It was attempting to survive a burgeoning protest movement emanating from Tehran’s bazaar, partially a result of the E3’s activation of the 2015 JCPOA’s “Snapback” Sanctions, and had seen its military capabilities degraded following Israel’s air campaign seven months prior. Fast forward to June, and Tehran has reasserted itself as a capable regional actor; inflicting asymmetric damage upon its adversaries whilst also proving itself capable of absorbing and sustaining heavy damage to its infrastructure and command and control personnel. But the Mullahs’ regime did not achieve its wartime objectives thanks to the capabilities that it brought to bear, but rather thanks to its judicious reading of its most powerful foe. Indeed, it understood that amongst the three belligerents, it was in fact President Donald J. Trump’s United States which could be considered the standoff’s weakest party.

In contrast to an Islamic Republic fighting for its survival against conventionally superior forces, factors such as the strategic elite’s reticence towards the potential for further protracted conflict in the region, Congressional wavering, and the administration’s need to contend with a souring public opinion which harbours hostile attitudes towards regime change efforts while also abhoring the possibility of sustaining casualties, ultimately meant that Washington could not endure in the drawn-out campaign that would have been necessary to precipitate the Regime’s collapse. In sum, Iran engaged its ‘Force morale’ as described by Marshal Ferdinand Foch against a similarly motivated Israeli adversary, which despite its resolve would be undermined by its ally’s lack of strategic patience.

This was predictable: why else would Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Ramsad David Barnea have reportedly stressed the brief nature of the campaign to the administration officials on the 11th of February? Whilst Israel entered this war as the Middle East’s preeminent power then, its decision to finally attempt regime change alongside a hesitant US partner has resulted in the delay of the erection of the new regional landscape that Israel hoped to establish. Through the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and its threats to shutoff commerce through the Bab........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)