Barely a week into the new year, another chaotic race for power is already underway in the Middle East and beyond. In a manner reminiscent of the warmer moments of the Cold War, the world is once again drifting toward overt spheres of influence, renewed bloc-building, and unapologetically bold declarations that amount, in effect, to “get off my yard.”

When Israel recognized Somaliland on 26 December, few understood just how far the shockwaves would travel. A week later, everything seems to have changed. Five countries—including Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and India—are reportedly preparing to follow suit. Across the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula, alliances are shifting, tensions are rising, and a new regional order is beginning to take shape.

The most immediate fallout has appeared within the Gulf Cooperation Council itself. Once seen as twin pillars of regional stability, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now openly at odds. The UAE backs the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seeks autonomy for southern Yemen, while Saudi Arabia supports the country’s internationally recognized government in Sana’a. Riyadh increasingly views the UAE’s expanding influence—especially its deepening military cooperation with Israel—as an existential threat.

On 2 January, the STC issued a “Constitutional Declaration of the State of South Arabia”, outlining plans for a new anti-Houthi Yemeni microstate with Aden as its capital. That same day, Saudi-led coalition aircraft struck the STC’s 37th Brigade in Hadramout, reportedly killing seven people. Since then, scores of STC fighters have been killed, wounded, or captured as Riyadh moves to reassert control following a dangerously destabilizing loss of cohesion within its coalition.

Although tensions had already prompted the

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)