The latest round of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad ended without agreement. That outcome is disappointing, but not surprising. The gaps between the two sides were always going to be difficult to bridge, particularly on the two issues that matter most: Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

At first glance, the choices facing Washington seem straightforward: 1) resume military operations, or 2) preserve the ceasefire and continue negotiations. In reality, the decision is far more complex—and far less comforting. The United States does not lack options. It lacks options that clearly deliver the outcomes it says it requires.

Start with the military path. Returning to large-scale operations may feel decisive, but it is far from guaranteed to succeed. Iran has already demonstrated a willingness to absorb significant strikes. Eliminating or securing its uranium stockpile would be operationally difficult, and reopening the Strait by force risks sustained escalation. Military action could intensify the conflict without achieving its stated objectives. It is worth remembering that Iran suffered, by conservative estimates, half a million casualties in its eight-year war with Iraq, which ultimately ended in a stalemate.

The alternative—maintaining the ceasefire while continuing talks—offers short-term stability but carries its own risks. A ceasefire that leaves Iran with a substantial stockpile of highly enriched uranium........

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