Russia is running a ‘hot’ war economy.
Defence spending in all forms has tripled since the invasion of Ukraine and is approaching 8 per cent of national output, roughly what it was under the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin is losing the economic war, and he is not winning the military war fast enough to compensate.Credit: AP
Military Keynesianism flatters GDP figures, never reliable anywhere, but particularly useless in Russia where data is manipulated.
An estimated 800,000 of the young and the brightest have left the country. Another 300,000 have been slaughtered or maimed in the meat grinder. The mobilisation net keeps widening, in a society already facing a demographic crisis.
Yet the alchemy of statistics has turned Russia into the macro-superstar of Europe. The International Monetary Fund has pencilled in growth of 3 per cent in 2023 and 2.6 per cent in 2024. “Our economy, unlike the others, is growing and has become the largest in Europe,” said Vladimir Putin at the ‘Everything For Victory’ forum in Tula.
This apparent resilience has confused many, leading to a pervasive sense of despair at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend.
In reality, Putin is losing the economic war, and he is not winning the military war fast enough to compensate. The fall of the Avdiivka salient changes nothing. He is wasting his armies, and two thirds of his tanks, on microscopic gains.
“The limits of growth have already been reached,” said Professor Pavel Baev from the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. “Industrial production is stagnating. The Russian energy sector suffers from declining revenues and delayed projects. Sanctions loopholes are being closed.”
Vladimir Putin has Russia headed for economic ruin. The West can’t lose its nerve now
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23.02.2024
Russia is running a ‘hot’ war economy.
Defence spending in all forms has tripled since the invasion of Ukraine and is approaching 8 per cent of national output, roughly what it was under the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin is losing the economic war, and he is not winning the military war fast enough to compensate.Credit: AP
Military Keynesianism flatters GDP figures, never reliable anywhere, but particularly........
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