Global warming policies were expected to drive a rapid shift toward a renewables-based energy system dominated by wind and solar. While growth in these sources did occur, it has not matched the pace that was widely anticipated. In the United States, the rise of cheap and abundant shale natural gas significantly reshaped the energy mix, displacing coal and limiting the relative share of wind and solar in electricity generation. In China and India, the situation has been different.

Coal remains dominant because it is widely available domestically, while natural gas is more limited or expensive to secure at scale. As a result, coal has retained its central role in both countries’ power systems. Solar and wind always provide intermittent, variable power. It was widely assumed that a cost-effective, utility-scale electricity storage solution would emerge to solve this problem, but that has not yet happened at the scale originally expected. In the pre-AI era, solar and wind were typically integrated into power systems alongside more reliable sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy.

For example, if the sun was shining on a Monday, electricity demand could be met largely by solar power during the day. At night, coal, natural gas, or nuclear plants would supply the required electricity. If the following Tuesday was cloudy or gloomy, generation would shift back toward coal, gas, or nuclear to maintain supply. AI introduces a new and more demanding challenge. AI data centers require........

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