US President Donald Trump’s decision to publicly shrug off China’s latest military drills around Taiwan may sound reassuring, but it masks a far more consequential reality unfolding in the western Pacific. These exercises are not background noise, nor are they mere muscle-flexing for domestic consumption. They are part of a carefully sequenced strategy by China to redefine the military and psychological boundaries around Taiwan ~ incrementally, persistently, and without triggering outright war.

The drills, which simulate blockade conditions and integrate air–sea coordination, reveal Beijing’s evolving preference for coercion over confrontation. Rather than a dramatic invasion scenario, China appears intent on normalising constant pressure: crossing the median line, saturating Taiwan’s airspace, and forcing Taipei to remain on perpetual alert. Over time, this approach erodes readiness, drains resources, and conditions both regional actors and global audiences to accept a more militarised status........

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