Hopes for a temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas during Ramadan were dashed over the weekend, when it became apparent that no such deal would be reached before the beginning of the holy month. Weeks of tough negotiations that raised optimistic speculations about a deal have so far produced no tangible results.

Hamas has hardened its position on a temporary ceasefire that would include the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners. This came as no surprise to Israeli negotiators; Israel has been warning for weeks that Hamas is set to reject a deal while attempting to provoke violent clashes between Palestinians and Arab-Israelis, and Israeli security forces during Ramadan. Tensions run high in Israel during Ramadan every year. This year, the war could make things much worse.

Hamas hope that violent clashes would increase pressure on Israel to stop the war

Hamas hope that violent clashes, especially if they involve civilian casualties, would enrage the international community and increase pressure on Israel to stop the war. A one-sided ceasefire means that Hamas will get to keep the Israeli hostages captive, rebuild itself as the ruling force in Gaza and continue to pose a considerable threat to Israelis.

In trying to avoid violent clashes during Ramadan, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu did a rare thing; he stood up to demands from his far-right nationalist minister for national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ben-Gvir wanted to impose draconian blanket bans on worshippers. The defence and security establishment urged Netanyahu to reject those, fearing such measures could fuel anger and unrest. Following a prolonged period of typical procrastination, Netanyahu decided not to impose restrictions that stray from existing ones.

But there may still be trouble ahead. There are still concerns that the police may receive contradictory instructions and act in ways that could lead to disorder, especially with Hamas already acting to inflame the situation.

QOSHE - Why a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely - Limor Simhony Philpott
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Why a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely

4 1
11.03.2024

Hopes for a temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas during Ramadan were dashed over the weekend, when it became apparent that no such deal would be reached before the beginning of the holy month. Weeks of tough negotiations that raised optimistic speculations about a deal have so far produced no tangible results.

Hamas has hardened its position on a temporary ceasefire that would include the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners. This came as no surprise to........

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