Iran’s retaliatory attack, which Israel has been expecting since it killed Iranian commanders in Damascus on 1st April, has started this evening. For the first time, Iran is attacking Israel directly. It has launched over 100 drones carrying explosives towards Israel from Iran, Iraq and Yemen. The drones will take between 8 and 10 hours to arrive to Israeli airspace, and it is expected that those that manage to evade Israeli defences could arrive to Israel at some point between 11pm and 1am.
It has also been reported that cruise missiles have been launched towards Israel. These take roughly two hours to reach Israel if they are not shot down. Israel is also preparing for the possibility that ballistic missiles will be launched later tonight, and those can reach Israel within minutes. Iran is trying to overwhelm Israel’s extensive defences in order to increase its chances of a successful strike.
Israel has been on high alert before the attack. Schools have shut down and public gatherings cancelled. Israelis are prepared to spend the night in bomb shelters if necessary. The psychological impact this has had on the Israeli public over the last few days has been a part of Iran’s attack plan.
Israel’s air and naval forces, with help from American and British military forces, are attempting to intercept as many incoming drones and missiles as possible. Israeli aircrafts have left Israel’s airspace and are on the lookout for drones. Israeli media is reporting that several drones have been shot down over Syria.
US President Biden has spent the last few days warning Iran from launching an attack against Israel, confirming his strong commitment to Israel’s security and warning Iran that American forces will intervene. American forces have also been building up in the region in preparation for an Iranian attack. Biden had hoped that his warning will help deter Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also warned that an attack on Israel launched directly from Iran will be met with a powerful Israeli response. The warnings seem to not have been effective. Tonight’s attack has been launched from Iran, as well as by several of its proxies around the Middle East. The attack has also been preceded by the capturing of a ship that is in part owned by an Israeli businessman near the Strait of Hormuz earlier today.
The Israeli war cabinet is currently meeting in a secure location, and it remains to be seen what Israel’s response will be. Currently, Israel is engaged in the much more urgent task of shooting down threats before they reach Israel.
There are fears that things may escalate into a full-scale war between Israel and Iran, that may also include American forces and Iran’s proxies, including Lebanon-based militant organisation Hezbollah. This is something that Israel and America will try to avoid, which may suggest a limited response from Israel against Iran.
It’s likely that Israel’s response will depend on the results of this unprecedented attack by Iran. The nature of the weapons used by Iran will also determine Israel’s response. If ballistic missiles will be involved, Israel’s retaliation will likely be such more severe.
As Israelis are braced for an imminent strike, the Middle East will wake up to a new – and much more dangerous – dawn tomorrow.
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