When No. 10 first devised the Illegal Migration Bill, the hope was that Rishi Sunak’s crackdown on asylum claims would have a unifying effect on the Tory party. The Bill – which aims to make it so those who arrive in the UK illegally cannot claim asylum – sailed through its second reading. But as it returns to the Commons this week, Sunak is facing demands from both sides of his party to amend the legislation.

The most immediate problem numbers wise comes from the moderate wing of the party. Tim Loughton is leading a group of would-be Tory rebels calling for a new safe and legal route to be introduced as part of the Bill. At present, ministers have only promised to establish a safe and legal route for asylum seekers once they decide there is space, with the focus on stopping the boats first. Given Labour are expected to back this amendment, Conservative MPs expect the government to accept their suggestion – rather than put it to a vote that No. 10 could lose.

Sunak is attempting to keep the peace with a migration crackdown that falls short of leaving the ECHR

Yet the more significant rebellion politically in the long term comes from the right of the party. Danny Kruger is leading an effort by Tory MPs to toughen up the Bill with a series of amendments aimed at forcing the government to ignore an initial ruling from European human rights judges. Taken as a whole, the purpose is to disapply more parts of the ECHR than the Bill does at present; there are some MPs who want Sunak to pull the UK out of it altogether.

Speaking this morning, Kruger told Radio 4 ‘there’s no rebellion here’ and that MPs are ‘very supportive’ of what ministers are doing. However, crucially, he said ‘we need to go a little further’. This group is looking for assurances on commitments from ministers, at which point they will avoid a vote. How is this all going down in government? Well, there’s already some hostile briefing aimed at Braverman, with a senior government source accusing her in the Times of being a ‘sock puppet’ of the right of the party and secretly backing these rebels.

There is discomfort over the fact that many of the things Kruger and his supporters are calling for are ideas Braverman pushed privately. The Bill was already delayed by several weeks as Sunak and Braverman sought to toughen it up and close down any loopholes. As I noted previously, Sunak is more instinctively cautious than his Home Secretary: the dynamic has consisted of efforts from the Home Office to go further with the legislation, while No. 10 has argued that it is best not to go so far as to have the courts more likely to find against it.

The range of amendments today from Tory MPs shows the mix of opinion in the party. For now, Sunak is attempting to keep the peace by coming up with a migration crackdown that falls short of leaving the ECHR; the Prime Minister takes the view that he is yet to be convinced such a step is necessary. However, if he is unable to show sufficient progress on his ‘stop the boats’ pledge ahead of the next election, Sunak will come under increasing pressure to do just that – even though some Tory MPs are unlikely to wear it.

QOSHE - The Tory rebellions brewing on small boats - Katy Balls
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The Tory rebellions brewing on small boats

4 1
27.03.2023

When No. 10 first devised the Illegal Migration Bill, the hope was that Rishi Sunak’s crackdown on asylum claims would have a unifying effect on the Tory party. The Bill – which aims to make it so those who arrive in the UK illegally cannot claim asylum – sailed through its second reading. But as it returns to the Commons this week, Sunak is facing demands from both sides of his party to amend the legislation.

The most immediate problem numbers wise comes from the moderate wing of the party. Tim Loughton is leading a group of would-be Tory rebels calling for a new safe and legal route to be introduced as part of the Bill. At present, ministers have only promised to establish a safe and legal route for asylum seekers once they decide there is space, with the focus on stopping........

© The Spectator


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