Rishi Sunak has received plaudits from MPs, foreign leaders and the media over the Windsor Framework. Yet the deal has not been voted on. This will change this week with MPs asked to vote on Wednesday on the Prime Minister’s renegotiation of the Northern Ireland protocol.

So far the mood music has been broadly good for Sunak. The deal went further than many in the party expected on issues such as the Stormont brake – which could allow the Northern Ireland assembly to stop new EU single market rules from applying in the region if activated. There have been no ministerial resignations and little sign that a mass rebellion is on the cards.

The hope is that the Tory rebellion will be minimal

However, the deal has been the subject of some criticism, with Boris Johnson (currently the only public Tory rebel) saying he would struggle to vote for the deal and several DUP MPs also voicing concern – particularly over the circumstances in which the brake would really be used.

It is the brake that MPs will be asked to vote on. Given Sunak does not actually need to technically hold a vote on the deal at all, this is intended to be the first and last Commons vote on the framework. There will be a 90 minute debate prior to voting – with members of the European Research Group already complaining that this is in sufficient time.

So, what counts as a good result for Sunak? The ERG will deliver its legal analysis of the deal ahead of the vote. When the group met a few weeks ago, they were split on whether to oppose it or get behind the deal on the basis it might not be perfect but is an improvement on what Johnson negotiated. It therefore follows that members of the group could vote differently to one another. The hope is that the Tory rebellion will be minimal – below 40 and ideally in single figures.

Yet the fact there has been little drama or anger at Sunak over the deal since it has been announced from the Tory benches means that there is a feeling that, even if there is a Tory rebellion, much of the sting has been taken out of it already. It’s why the more important factor on Wednesday is what the DUP choose to do.

Some DUP MPs will likely vote against, with Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr both publicly critical of the deal. The hope in 10 Downing Street is that other members such as the party’s leader Jeffrey Donaldson could abstain rather than vote against. That would suggest there is a path to restoring power-sharing at Stormont (one of the key reasons for No. 10 trying to fix the protocol) even if it isn’t something that will happen overnight.