The helicopter crash that killed Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian will not fundamentally change the Islamic Republic. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old supreme leader, remains the constitutional commander-in-chief and is still in charge of strategic decision-making in the country. But Raisi being removed from the scene has the potential to scramble the politics of succession in Iran.
This is not the first time an Iranian president has died while in office. On August 30, 1981, president Mohammad Ali Rajai was killed alongside prime minister Mohammad-Javad Bahonar and other government officials in a bombing. The current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei succeeded Rajai as president.
Attention will turn to Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s powerful son
There have also been a series of crashes and deaths, some mysterious, of Iranian officials over the years. In 1995, Iran’s Air Force Commander Mansour Sattari and his senior aides died in a plane crash when attempting to land in Esfahan. In 2006, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces, Ahmad Kazemi, and other officers died in a plane crash in north-western Iran amid bad weather and poor visibility.
The death of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2017 was suspicious, with members of his family alleging murder. There have also been threats to the lives of Iran’s former presidents, including Mohammad Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Raisi’s demise will not fundamentally change the Islamic Republic’s grand strategy of trying to eradicate the state of Israel and push the United States out of the Middle East. The IRGC, which liaises with its sprawling network of proxies and partners, does not report to Raisi. It reports ultimately to the supreme leader. The composition of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) over which Raisi nominally presided as chairman will change slightly – with a new president and foreign minister. The new foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, is the brother of Khamenei’s son-in-law and a former deputy secretary of the SNSC and deputy foreign minister.
But a hardened SNSC will remain in place due to Khamenei’s purging over the years. Raisi’s interim successor as president, Mohammad Mokhber, is a trusted disciple of the supreme leader. Mokhber has managed for the supreme leader the ‘Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order’, a large conglomerate created after thousands of properties were confiscated after the Islamic Revolution.
The signature initiatives which have taken place under Raisi’s presidency – from bolstering partnerships with Russia and China to improving relations with Iran’s Arab neighbours – will also continue. The regime is looking for lifelines with its difficult economic situation under sanctions. The IRGC will still control Iran’s foreign policy in the region irrespective of who is president and foreign minister.
Where Raisi’s absence will matter is in the politics of succession. Raisi was the most qualified candidate in the Islamic Republic to succeed Khamenei. No other member of Iran’s political elite could claim to have presided over two branches of government – the judiciary and the presidency in Raisi’s case. He was also the closest president ideologically to the supreme leader, functioning as a protégé. Raisi’s death and the vacuum it creates could accelerate efforts in Tehran to name a deputy supreme leader, which had been previously under consideration.
It was far from certain Raisi would succeed Khamenei. He was widely perceived in Iran as incompetent. But at the very least he would have been a trusted front man to occupy the presidency during a transition. This was especially important as the Iranian president has a constitutional role when it comes to serving on an interim leadership council if Khamenei dies or becomes incapacitated. This is why the supreme leader anointed Raisi as president – and even barred the pragmatist Ali Larijani, the former speaker of parliament, from competing against him.
Raisi was also deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts – the body constitutionally tasked with choosing Khamenei’s successor. There was speculation he would become its chairman after the recent election for the chamber in March. Raisi’s death leaves a void during a period when the new parliament will select a speaker, who also has a seat on the SNSC, and the leadership of the Assembly of Experts will be named. Given these openings in the presidency, speakership, and the Assembly of Experts executive board, Khamenei will want to tightly control and choreograph these selections to minimise risk to the system.
With Raisi gone, the stock of other individuals to succeed him will naturally rise. Attention will turn to Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s powerful son, who until now has preferred to operate in the shadows and lacks the political persona of Raisi. There are dangers here for the regime. If the supreme leadership passes to Khamenei’s son it will inevitably draw comparisons to the monarchy – which the Islamic Revolution overthrew in 1979. There have also been complaints from the IRGC about Mojtaba intervening in state affairs and there may be pushback if he is promoted.
There remain other contenders. Being president is not a constitutional prerequisite to becoming supreme leader, despite Khamenei ascending to the post in that manner. The spotlight may also fall on Alireza Arafi. Arafi, a member of the Assembly of Experts and Guardian Council, has also been chairman of Al Mustafa International University, which the IRGC uses for intelligence purposes to recruit for the Quds Force. However, he is not a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, like Khamenei and Raisi.
Other possible candidates to watch are Mohsen Qomi, a deputy advisor to the supreme leader for international affairs who has served as a member of the Assembly of Experts; chief justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei; Mohsen Araki, who has been a member of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts; and Ayatollah Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, another member of the Assembly of Experts who has been chairman of the Academy of Islamic Sciences. Arafi and Mohseni-Ejei are natural contenders given their administrative experience. Qomi, Araki, and Mirbagheri lack Raisi’s bureaucratic pedigree but should not be discounted as dark horse candidates given their roles on the Assembly of Experts and relationships with Khamenei. It is unlikely that more pragmatic clerics like former president Hassan Rouhani will be serious contenders given the supreme leader’s purification of the system – which resulted in Rouhani being disqualified from running for the Assembly of Experts.
In the end, the presidency of the Islamic Republic since 1989 under Khamenei’s leadership has been a death sentence – politically and literally in Raisi’s case. There will be increased political competition with Raisi removed from the field, but Iran’s policies will remain unchanged.
Raisi’s death has ruined the Ayatollah’s succession plans
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20.05.2024
The helicopter crash that killed Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian will not fundamentally change the Islamic Republic. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old supreme leader, remains the constitutional commander-in-chief and is still in charge of strategic decision-making in the country. But Raisi being removed from the scene has the potential to scramble the politics of succession in Iran.
This is not the first time an Iranian president has died while in office. On August 30, 1981, president Mohammad Ali Rajai was killed alongside prime minister Mohammad-Javad Bahonar and other government officials in a bombing. The current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei succeeded Rajai as president.
Attention will turn to Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s powerful son
There have also been a series of crashes and deaths, some mysterious, of Iranian officials over the years. In 1995, Iran’s Air Force Commander Mansour Sattari and his senior aides died in a plane crash when attempting to land in Esfahan. In 2006, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces, Ahmad Kazemi, and other officers died in a plane crash in north-western Iran amid bad weather and poor visibility.
The death of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2017 was suspicious, with members of his family alleging murder. There have also been threats to the lives of Iran’s former presidents, including Mohammad Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Raisi’s demise will not fundamentally change the Islamic Republic’s grand strategy of trying to eradicate the state of Israel and push the United States out of the Middle East. The IRGC, which liaises with its sprawling........
© The Spectator
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