The great schism on the right of British politics was aptly displayed last week. On Wednesday night, as the Prime Minister attended a ‘pretty downbeat’ drinks reception at the Carlton Club, across town the real action was happening at the Boisdale restaurant in Canary Wharf. Some 300-odd journalists, MPs and donors flocked there to pay tribute to Nigel Farage on his 60th birthday, in an occasion that was somewhere between a reunion and a rally.

Much of the talk was about the forthcoming general election, with Farage himself teasing a return as leader of Reform UK. Taking to the stage in his blue velvet double-breasted jacket, he declared ‘This seems like the perfect occasion to make an announcement,’ before insisting ‘I genuinely haven’t made up my mind’. Reform are currently polling at around 16 per cent under Richard Tice and are predicted to cost the Tories 41 seats. Both numbers could rise higher if Farage chooses, Cincinnatus-like, to lay down his GB News microphone and return as leader once more.

Yet while much attention is understandably focused on the forthcoming general election in Westminster, might Reform’s best bet be elsewhere? The Welsh parliamentary elections in 2026 are being viewed by some in the party as much more favourable terrain. There are currently 60 Senedd members: 40 constituency members, elected via first past the post, and 20 regional members, elected by the additional member system which aims to better reflect the support for each party across the country.

Ukip, Reform’s spiritual predecessor, did very well out of this system. In 2015, the party won 12.6 per cent of the vote at the general election yet not a single seat in parliament. But in the 2016 Senedd elections, Ukip won seven of the 60 seats on a near-identical 12.5 per cent of the vote. A poll last month put Reform just a point behind the Tories in Wales, with 15 per cent planning to vote for them in the general election. For the Senedd, they are currently on 13 per cent. Likely target areas include North Wales and the Valleys, with Caroline Jones – the former Ukip leader in the Senedd – likely to play a prominent role. ‘We could win ten seats,’ predicts one party insider.

Reform’s chances of winning seats are likely to be further enhanced if the planned Senedd expansion from 60 to 96 members goes ahead. The expansion is expected to bring with it a significant increase in the funding for different groups in the Welsh parliament. Group funding fills the role that ‘Short money’ does in the House of Commons, helping the opposition parties with their staff costs. The Welsh Conservatives last year filed a bill for more than £380,000 while other members of the Senedd use it to fund think tank research.

In this way, Cardiff Bay could be to Reform what Brussels once was to Ukip – a useful source of funds and an established political base. Much as how Ukip’s success in the mid-2010s was a legacy of the work done in the fallow years of the 2000s, so too could Reform’s longer-term plans be served by a well-funded operation in the Senedd.