The British government wants to create a smoke-free generation by banning cigarette sales to anyone born after 2008.

On paper, it is a bold and logical step – if people can never legally buy cigarettes, fewer people will smoke.

But human behaviour is rarely that simple, especially when it comes to young people.

There’s a well-established idea in behavioural science known as scarcity theory – when something becomes harder to access, it often becomes more desirable.

Research at Bond University, and many others across the world, has consistently shown it’s part of the reason limited-edition products sell out and why exclusivity drives demand.

When applied to smoking, a lifetime ban for a specific generation risks turning cigarettes into a kind of “forbidden product”, something that carries symbolic value precisely because it is off-limits.

For adolescents and young adults, that symbolic value........

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