US presidential elections are always about a choice for the future. Who do you want to lead the country? Who will best address your needs?

But the US midterm elections – where all the seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are on the ballot – are always a referendum on the president and his party in Congress.

So, given US President Donald Trump’s popularity, what does this mean for the Republicans’ chances in November?

In short, Trump is in terrible shape politically at the moment.

His net-approval rate is in negative territory in 44 of the 50 states in the country. His national approval rating is also well below 40 per cent, and is heading lower.

Polling consistently shows most voters do not approve of Trump’s management of major issues, including the economy, inflation, jobs, health care, immigration and foreign policy.

His decision to launch the Iran war in late February had the lowest approval of any war in American history. It remains among the most unpopular wars.

Inflation is accelerating in the US. Credit card delinquencies are at a 15-year high. With no end to the war in sight, and petrol so expensive, consumer sentiment has crashed to historic lows.

While Trump has broadly retained support among Republicans, his approval rating has declined among independent and Latino voters – two key demographic groups that were crucial to Trump’s election two years ago.

A clear path in the House

Does this mean the Democrats will stroll to victory in the midterms? It’s not quite that simple. US politics is extremely volatile, and there are fewer and fewer seats that are truly contestable.

To control the House, the Democrats need a net gain of three seats, and in the Senate, four........

© The New Daily