The Hidden Risks of Declaring Early Victory over Iran

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If the Iranian regime survives the ongoing war, it will rebuild and rearm—and its Arab neighbors will pay the price.

The ongoing military confrontation in the Persian Gulf region—pitting the United States and Israel against Iran—has spilled far beyond the confines of its direct combatants. Iran’s neighbors, including the Gulf states, Iraq, and Jordan, though not architects of this conflict, have nonetheless emerged as its primary victims. Facing the targeting of energy infrastructure, the disruption of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the erosion of economic confidence, and the retreat of investment flows, the Gulf has found itself positioned as the primary recipient of the fallout from a conflict whose objectives and endgame are defined well beyond its borders.

This reality imposes a strategic question of acute sensitivity, one that resists the comfort of diplomatic platitudes. The Gulf states are not genuine partners in this confrontation, and they put their diplomatic weight into preventing it; nevertheless, they are bearing the consequences of a war whose trajectory and terms of closure lie outside their control.

Why Iran Is Trying to Destroy the GCC’s Economy

For four decades, the Arab nations of the Gulf engaged with regional wars as supporters, financiers, or indirect stakeholders, but almost never as participants. Even during the Iran–Iraq War and the 1991 liberation of Kuwait, their territory remained largely outside the zone of systematic targeting. That era is over; in the two months of Operation Epic Fury, Iranian missile and drone campaigns have struck oil and gas facilities, power and desalination plants, airports, and logistics nodes across all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. As the Carnegie Endowment aptly put it, the war turned “historically secure neighbor states into war zones overnight.”

Iran’s decision to strike at the GCC, whose members were not involved in Operation Epic Fury and opposed it from the outset, may seem strange. In fact, however, the ongoing drone and missile strikes on GCC infrastructure amount to far more than symbolic retaliation. Iran is pursuing a deliberate strategy to as a pressure point against the United States—one that Tehran believes can impose........

© The National Interest