The “Axis of Evil” just got more real. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Jan. 4 that within the previous week, Russia fired into Ukraine “multiple” ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea. Pyongyang was already providing the Russians with arms. In 2022, Washington condemned North Korea for sending Russia artillery ammunition.
Nevertheless, providing ballistic missiles is a significant escalation.
Since the United Nations Security Council has declared North Korea’s ballistic missile program illegal, this would be a violation of UN sanctions.
Ballistic missiles have a more extended range than artillery, meaning they will help the Russians strike civilian infrastructure far from the front lines.
North Korean military assistance represents another means by which Putin could prolong the Russian invasion. This development occurs at a crucial time when both the Russian and Ukrainian governments need to signal their ability to sustain their forces in what has become a war of attrition.
More broadly, this reinforces a consequential trend: a bloc of cold US adversaries are cooperating to oppose the US global agenda—not only by economic and diplomatic means, but also militarily.
China has already been materially assisting Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine and has likely violated its pledge not to provide armaments. Russia reportedly plans to buy ballistic missiles from Iran for use against Ukraine. Now, the DPRK has become part of a coalition fighting what many observers see as a proxy war between the Russia-China Bloc and the West.
Tangible DPRK military assistance to Russia’s war deepens the fear that members of this Bloc could cooperate in other ways. An obvious possibility is North Korea carrying out an aggressive action on the Korean Peninsula in coordination with a Chinese military attack against Taiwan. Beijing and Pyongyang might see mutual benefit in confronting the United States with simultaneous crises that could overwhelm the US' ability to address either effectively.
North Korea’s willingness to supply some of the weapons that Russia is using to kill Ukrainians fits a broader pattern of recent behavior by the Kim regime. Pyongyang has stiffed US government attempts to re-open bilateral dialogue, declared that reunification with South Korea is impossible, and committed itself to never giving up its nuclear arsenal, which it is now busily expanding. Kim has rejected former South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s dream of reconciliation and economic integration between the two Koreas, and also rebuffed former US President Donald Trump’s vision of helping North Korea gain wealth by plugging itself into the world capitalist economy.
Instead, Kim has concluded that his interests are best served by closer association with China and Russia, even if Pyongyang has enough concern for its international reputation to deny it is helping to facilitate Russian aggression.
North Korea’s decision to arm Russia with ballistic missiles should compel a robust response from the United States and its allies.
US ally Seoul, despite being a manufacturing powerhouse and major global arms exporter, has resisted supplying lethal aid to Ukraine directly up to now. South Korean policy proscribes providing weaponry to foreign countries at war. Involvement by North Korea, however, makes the Ukraine war more relevant to the Korean Peninsula, and would be a suitable trigger for the South Korean government to announce an exception to its usual policy.
As for the United States, the usual symbolic additional sanctions against North Korean individuals and entities by Washington would be weak. Nor can Washington depend on meaningful action by the UN Security Council, where North Korea’s fellow Bloc members Russia and China have veto power.
An appropriate US response would be upgraded assistance to Ukraine to offset the help Russia is getting from North Korea. This escalation of the Ukraine war, represented by North Korean ballistic missiles, further discredits the Biden Administration’s overly cautious policy of denying Ukraine long-range weapons and advanced aircraft out of fear of provoking Russia. Hundreds of ATACMS missiles in US stockpiles are reportedly scheduled for scrapping because they have reached or are nearing their expiration date but are still serviceable. Transferring these weapons to Ukraine should be a no-brainer.
A bigger question is whether the United States will continue paying the costs of sponsoring Pax Americana. Helping Ukraine supports the liberal world order, of which Washington is the chief sponsor and defender. Conversely, failing to help Ukraine, especially as other adversaries are helping Russia, would empower the China-Russia Bloc.
Yet continuing to fund Ukraine is increasingly controversial among Americans. Some Republican members of Congress are blocking $61 billion in new US assistance to Ukraine, mainly because they want to limit US overseas funding commitments (Israel and Taiwan still make the list) and spend more money to solve domestic problems such as managing immigration across the US’s southern border. This sentiment represents a movement from America’s postwar and bipartisan internationalist posture toward a more constrained foreign policy.
North Korea taking a more active role in a larger movement to overthrow US-supported global norms and arrangements is another indication that the cost to Americans of maintaining world leadership is rising. The cost will include not only additional funding for Ukraine but also a significant expansion of the US defense industrial base. Kim and other US adversaries appear ready to play the long game.
Denny Roy's work has focused mostly on Asia Pacific security issues, particularly those involving China. Recently Roy has written on Chinese foreign policy, the North Korea nuclear weapons crisis, China-Japan relations, and China-Taiwan relations. His interests include not only traditional military-strategic matters and foreign policy, but also international relations theory and human rights politics.
Before joining the East-West Center in 2007, Roy worked at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu for seven years, rising to the rank of Professor after starting as a Research Fellow. From 1998 to 2000, Roy was a faculty member in the National Security Affairs Department at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. There he taught courses on China, Asian history, and Southeast Asian politics. He also designed and taught an innovative course titled Human Rights and National Security in Asia. Email the author: [email protected].
Main image is from North Korean State Media. All others are Creative Commons.
Axis of Missiles: Russia Is Using Missiles from North Korea to Attack Ukraine
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06.01.2024
The “Axis of Evil” just got more real. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Jan. 4 that within the previous week, Russia fired into Ukraine “multiple” ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea. Pyongyang was already providing the Russians with arms. In 2022, Washington condemned North Korea for sending Russia artillery ammunition.
Nevertheless, providing ballistic missiles is a significant escalation.
Since the United Nations Security Council has declared North Korea’s ballistic missile program illegal, this would be a violation of UN sanctions.
Ballistic missiles have a more extended range than artillery, meaning they will help the Russians strike civilian infrastructure far from the front lines.
North Korean military assistance represents another means by which Putin could prolong the Russian invasion. This development occurs at a crucial time when both the Russian and Ukrainian governments need to signal their ability to sustain their forces in what has become a war of attrition.
More broadly, this reinforces a consequential trend: a bloc of cold US adversaries are cooperating to oppose the US global agenda—not only by economic and diplomatic means, but also militarily.
China has already been materially assisting Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine and has likely violated its pledge not to provide armaments. Russia reportedly plans to buy ballistic missiles from Iran for use against Ukraine. Now, the DPRK has become part of a coalition fighting what many observers see as a proxy war between the Russia-China Bloc and the West.
Tangible DPRK military assistance to Russia’s war deepens the........
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