Park Jung-won
Due to its unique geopolitical situation, sitting astride both land and sea, the security of the Korean Peninsula is greatly influenced by external circumstances. If there is a common factor in the historical disasters that Korea has experienced in international politics, it is that political leaders have been complacent with their existing status and focused on internal conflicts and power struggles, paying little attention to ominous signs from outside. Since the end of the Cold War, especially over the past generation, there has been an unprecedented period of peace. However, things are now changing. Crises are brewing in Europe, the Middle East, the South China Sea — and closer to home, in the Taiwan Strait.
As if anticipating such a situation, North Korea’s leader has declared that the North and South are no longer one nation and that reunification will be achieved by force between two hostile states. Over the past 70 years, the South Korea-U.S. alliance has prevented further large-scale military conflict on the Korean Peninsula and provided the basic security needed for South Korea to achieve industrialization and democratization. But can this guarantee continue? If faced with difficult choices, what decisions and preparations should South Korea make?
Recently, NBC News reported that President Joe Biden’s administration is preparing “contingency plans” for an “October surprise” from North Korea, based on interviews with unnamed government officials. They believe that North Korea will engage in the most significant localized military provocation against South Korea in the past decade, just before the U.S. presidential election in November. The exact timing of the provocation is expected to be such that it could have a decisive impact on American voters. This report views North Korea’s potential provocation this year as an extension of Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Just as Vladimir Putin aimed to aid Donald Trump's victory then, this time he is expected to encourage Kim Jong-un to provoke South Korea. Given the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the emergence of a “third front” just before the election would cause global chaos and damage Biden’s leadership.
The official meeting between President Yoon Suk Yeol and opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, which took place on April 29 for the first time since President Yoon’s inauguration two years ago, was nothing more than a political show. There was no discussion or exchange of opinions about fundamental issues, let alone on any countermeasures regarding the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. Shouldn’t Yoon have earnestly requested cooperation from opposition leader Lee, at least on security issues? When the leaders of the ruling and opposition parties finally met, they should have prioritized discussions on forming a bipartisan consultative body to achieve a national consensus on security. But perhaps expecting this was unrealistic from the start. This reality highlights the uncomfortable truth that South Korea is facing now, showing that the country is dangerously veering away from addressing the security situation around the Korean Peninsula.
Although Yoon still has three years left in his term, his remaining tenure seems like an unpredictable fog. He faces a constant threat of impeachment, while the future is equally uncertain for leaders of opposition parties. Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the main opposition party, and Cho Kuk, the leader of another minority opposition party, both face their own legal risks. One thing is clear: each of the three has many vulnerabilities, raising serious questions about their qualifications as state leaders. The fact that these individuals dominate South Korean politics epitomizes the tragicomedy of the country's political landscape. The issues they are fighting over are not related to South Korea's security or urgent social issues such as housing, childcare, and elderly care. Instead, they are immersed in a do-or-die fight for their own survival.
Even if it may not be apparent to Yoon, from an objective viewpoint his administration is suffering a massive crisis from which it will be difficult to recover. Last month’s presidential press conference strongly gave the impression that Yoon is living in a different world. The opposition is now openly targeting first lady Kim Keon Hee.
The death of Marine Corporal Choi was an extremely simple incident. It was a regrettable accident where the commanding officer, who sent soldiers into the water without life jackets during a search operation for missing persons swept away by heavy rain, was rightfully held accountable. This incident should not have had any major or even minor ramifications. However, it was the Yoon administration itself that turned this incident into a big issue. Yoon showed the same attitude during the Itaewon disaster. Despite 159 people losing their lives in this unprecedented alleyway tragedy, he showed virtually no gesture of apology or reflection. His stance was that the government was not legally at fault. He protected the minister of the related department, who happened to be his high school and university junior, until the end.
The ruling party’s crushing defeat in the last general election was not a consequence of strong support for Lee Jae-myung and his opposition party. The opposition was also perceived as incompetent and corrupt, but centrist voters believed Yoon was even worse. However, Yoon still seems to lack a proper understanding of this public sentiment. The goal to build a country where fairness, common sense, justice, and principles stand firm was the reason the people chose him as president. The only way for him to survive politically is to clearly demonstrate to the public that he is upholding this aim. This is not a situation from which he can escape through clumsy political maneuvers. He must show that no one is above the law — not his wife, not former President Moon Jae-in and his wife, nor Lee Jae-myung and his wife. The result of failure will redound much further than his political fate; the future of the Korean Peninsula is at stake. Yoon is now at a critical crossroads.
Park Jung-won (park_jungwon@hotmail.com), Ph.D. in law from the London School of Economics (LSE), is a professor of international law at Dankook University.
Weak leaders create hard times
30
0
06.06.2024
Park Jung-won
Due to its unique geopolitical situation, sitting astride both land and sea, the security of the Korean Peninsula is greatly influenced by external circumstances. If there is a common factor in the historical disasters that Korea has experienced in international politics, it is that political leaders have been complacent with their existing status and focused on internal conflicts and power struggles, paying little attention to ominous signs from outside. Since the end of the Cold War, especially over the past generation, there has been an unprecedented period of peace. However, things are now changing. Crises are brewing in Europe, the Middle East, the South China Sea — and closer to home, in the Taiwan Strait.
As if anticipating such a situation, North Korea’s leader has declared that the North and South are no longer one nation and that reunification will be achieved by force between two hostile states. Over the past 70 years, the South Korea-U.S. alliance has prevented further large-scale military conflict on the Korean Peninsula and provided the basic security needed for South Korea to achieve industrialization and democratization. But can this guarantee continue? If faced with difficult choices, what decisions and preparations should South Korea make?
Recently, NBC News reported that President Joe Biden’s administration is preparing “contingency plans” for an “October surprise” from North Korea, based on interviews with unnamed government officials. They believe that North Korea will engage in the most significant localized military provocation........
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