The race to secure control of the National Assembly has kicked off. The upcoming general elections scheduled for April 10 appear to be what the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) should not lose.
For the PPP, gaining more than half of the 300 parliamentary seats is crucial to carry out President Yoon Suk Yeol's pledges during his presidential campaigns two years ago. As the PPP has consistently appealed that Yoon’s pledges have not been carried out promptly due to the ceaseless impediment of the DPK-controlled Assembly for the past two years, their main mission to accomplish in the upcoming general elections is retaking control of the legislative body. By doing so, the PPP-controlled Assembly could support Yoon’s policies by enacting laws with no delay.
However, the DPK’s main goal is to keep its leverage in the Assembly by securing more than 150 seats, the same goal as the PPP, so that it can break Yoon's aggressive drive on controversial issues. Rep. Lee Jae-myung, the head of the party who was a contender against Yoon in the 2022 presidential elections, repeatedly urged the public to vote for the DPK to keep the government in check. Because of Yoon’s hawkish leadership that has no room for dialogue or collaboration with the DPK, Lee has expressed worry over and over again regarding the government’s decisions on economic, diplomatic and security issues.
For different reasons, the two main parties in South Korea aim to secure more than 150 of seats on April 10. At this point, however, it is uncertain which party can achieve the goal as the public shows dissatisfaction toward both Yoon and Lee.
According to polls, Yoon’s approval ratings are still hovering around the 30s. It has been only two years since he took office in May 2022, meaning the approval ratings should have been higher than those of his predecessors. Starting with his hot mic scandal in September 2022 in New York, Yoon’s approval ratings dropped gradually while his wife’s actions did not help bounce his approval ratings back to the 50s.
Due to his low approval ratings, he has never had a honeymoon period as enjoyed by every prior president in their first year or two in office. To remove a grey area of his political capability, he engaged in a tug-of-war with entry-level doctors to increase the number of medical school admissions. South Koreans appear to support his drive to increase the number of medical school admissions which has not been increased since 2006. However, it has not contributed to a dramatic climb in his approval ratings.
To demonstrate their capabilities, Yoon and the PPP are eager to win in the general elections so that the government can carry out Yoon’s policies in a timely manner. By doing so, the PPP would have more room to seek to retain power three years later in the next presidential election, meaning they must win the upcoming general elections to support their interests.
For the DPK, the uncertainty of Yoon’s politics filled with his spontaneous and reckless decisions is what it focuses on when appealing to the public to vote for them. Yoon has never met Lee since Lee became the party leader in August 2022. Yoon has set a record as a president who has not officially met the main opposition party leader for more than a year and a half.
However, as Lee’s approval ratings are also low (similar to Yoon’s) due to numerous charges against him, the DPK has been framed as a bullet-proof party defending Lee from going to prison. In this context, his message to the public can be ineffective.
Due to the deep-rooted antagonism between the two main rival parties, politics has not been working to make South Korea a better country. Economic indicators and economic growth figures are grim while the youth unemployment rate is still high at 5.9 percent.
If the ruling party fails to gain more than half of the Assembly seats, Yoon will immediately become a lame duck and his policies will not be implemented with legislative support. Considering the enormous power Yoon can exercise as president, he still may initiate his key pledges. However, those will not be supported by the DPK-controlled Assembly, meaning his hands will be partially tied for three more years.
As of this writing, the PPP is unlikely to gain more than half of the seats. On top of Yoon’s low approval ratings, the candidates running for the general elections are also not competitive, meaning they have no choice but to use Yoon's leverage which may not be helpful for their campaigns. Due to Yoon’s low approval ratings, voting for the candidate in the ruling party to develop the country is no longer attractive.
The DPK won a landslide victory in the 2020 general elections, gaining two-thirds of seats. However, as the party failed to regain power with no tangible achievements to make significant reforms in the past four years, the public questions why they need to vote again for the party which has already proven its inability to change the political and social environment with 180 Assembly seats. (If one party has two-thirds of the 300 seats, it can do whatever it wants.)
As the metropolitan areas occupy 40 percent of the 300 seats, the PPP is a de facto contender. The DPK won 106 seats in the metropolitan areas while the PPP secured only 16 in the 2020 general elections. This is an advantage for the DPK that if the current lawmakers successfully secure their seats, the DPK will easily gain more than half of the seats, again.
Depending on the results of the general elections, either Han Dong-hoon, the interim leader of the PPP, or Lee Jae-myung, the DPK leader, will suffer critical damage to their future presidential campaigns. In this regard, whichever party wins the general elections by gaining more than 150 seats, the leader of that party is likely to consolidate his power to become the next president of South Korea.
Mitch Shin is a chief correspondent for The Diplomat and a research fellow at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. Shin was a nonresident research fellow at the Institute for Security & Development Policy and Stockholm Korea Center and a nonresident Korea Foundation fellow at Pacific Forum.
Who will win in the April 10 general elections?
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17.03.2024
The race to secure control of the National Assembly has kicked off. The upcoming general elections scheduled for April 10 appear to be what the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) should not lose.
For the PPP, gaining more than half of the 300 parliamentary seats is crucial to carry out President Yoon Suk Yeol's pledges during his presidential campaigns two years ago. As the PPP has consistently appealed that Yoon’s pledges have not been carried out promptly due to the ceaseless impediment of the DPK-controlled Assembly for the past two years, their main mission to accomplish in the upcoming general elections is retaking control of the legislative body. By doing so, the PPP-controlled Assembly could support Yoon’s policies by enacting laws with no delay.
However, the DPK’s main goal is to keep its leverage in the Assembly by securing more than 150 seats, the same goal as the PPP, so that it can break Yoon's aggressive drive on controversial issues. Rep. Lee Jae-myung, the head of the party who was a contender against Yoon in the 2022 presidential elections, repeatedly urged the public to vote for the DPK to keep the government in check. Because of Yoon’s hawkish leadership that has no room for dialogue or collaboration with the DPK, Lee has expressed worry over and over again regarding the government’s decisions on economic, diplomatic and security issues.
For different reasons, the two main parties in South Korea aim to secure more than 150 of seats on April 10. At this point,........
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