By Donald Kirk
The New Year is opening on a disturbing note. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza are killing hundreds if not thousands a day, and we have to endure threats of war by China against Taiwan and by North Korea against South Korea, and maybe against Japan and the U.S. too. Those are just the more obvious flashpoints. War could erupt almost anywhere, often by surprise.
No one had predicted the murderous onslaught by Hamas terrorists against southern Israel on Oct. 7, and no one had expected the Russians simply to invade Ukraine nearly two years ago. War, however, does not always break out when and where most feared. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un keeps saying he’ll unleash holy hell against South Korea, maybe fire off a few nukes, but his rhetoric includes a huge qualifier. He’ll attack only “if provoked.”
Those two words mean his threats are not altogether serious; you do not see Koreans running to bomb shelters. The sense, with nothing really to prove it, is that China’s President Xi Jinping is urging Kim to cool it. North Korea, remember, has not tested a nuke in more than six years. They have fabricated quite a few since then, and they’re opening a new reactor that should reinforce the threat, but it’s hard to imagine Kim is going to be so foolish as to make good on his bold words considering the response could finally destroy his regime.
For that matter, President Xi may not be totally serious about his repeated vows to take over the island province of Taiwan, which hasn’t been under mainland control since the Japanese defeated the rotting Qing dynasty in 1895. Taiwanese then, as now, did not want the mainlanders lording it over them and were not so averse to Japanese rule as the Koreans, who fell to Japan 15 years later.
With a presidential election coming up in Taiwan on Jan. 13, the candidates now agree on one thing: Taiwan should remain a province of China even if Beijing exercises no control. China will not go beyond raising a ruckus as long as Taiwan does not declare itself an independent nation-state. While the ruling Democratic Progressive Party represents latent Taiwanese nationalism, the opposition Kuomintang, having fled the mainland in 1949, wants to foster great relations with Beijing in the interests of commerce and plain common sense.
Let us hope there will be no surprises to disturb the peace that somehow prevails in East and Northeast Asia despite all the big talk, but the sparks are still flying. Look at the South China Sea where the Philippines are facing up to big bully China, whose coast guard vessels are obstructing Philippine fishing boats.
The Americans, now bonding with the Philippines, returning to bases from which Philippine “nationalists” kicked them out more than 30 years ago, are pledged to defend the pro-American regime of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, son of the dictator who was thrown out with American assistance in 1986. For sure, however, Washington does not want to go to war with the Chinese for the South China Sea. Better to live with threats and counter-threats than to unleash the dogs of war that are growling within the cages of alliances and groupings on all sides.
The Ukraine and Gaza wars demonstrate, however, the uncertainty of where and when the rhetoric will burst into full-scale death and destruction. The volatility of American politics makes the future even harder to predict. No one can be sure Donald Trump, if he returns to the White House, will want to lavish multi-billions in arms on Ukraine in a war against Russia’s President Putin. Russian textbooks are now saying the 2020 presidential election was “stolen,” just as Trump contends. Had Trump been elected to a second term, Ukraine by now would be under Russian control.
Voices in the U.S. are also weary of the need to go on supporting Israel in a campaign in Gaza that could go on for months, if not years. We can be pretty sure Trump would support Israel, but what if the war extends to southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah poses an even greater threat to the Jewish state than Hamas? And what if Iran, Israel’s regional foe, provides more arms for Israel’s enemies while fostering attacks on U.S. forces?
Then there is America’s own porous southern border with Mexico, which Trump would like to close to the flood of immigrants. Everywhere, fortress America is under assault, from within and without.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) in London at this writing, writes on war and peace mainly from Washington and Seoul.
Another year of wars and threats
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04.01.2024
By Donald Kirk The New Year is opening on a disturbing note. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza are killing hundreds if not thousands a day, and we have to endure threats of war by China against Taiwan and by North Korea against South Korea, and maybe against Japan and the U.S. too. Those are just the more obvious flashpoints. War could erupt almost anywhere, often by surprise.
No one had predicted the murderous onslaught by Hamas terrorists against southern Israel on Oct. 7, and no one had expected the Russians simply to invade Ukraine nearly two years ago. War, however, does not always break out when and where most feared. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un keeps saying he’ll unleash holy hell against South Korea, maybe fire off a few nukes, but his rhetoric includes a huge qualifier. He’ll attack only “if provoked.”
Those two words mean his threats are not altogether serious; you do not see Koreans running to bomb shelters. The sense, with nothing really to prove it, is that China’s President Xi Jinping is urging Kim to cool it. North Korea, remember, has not tested a nuke in more than six years. They have........
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