Europe will run out of jet fuel in ‘6 weeks or so,’ key official warns

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol on Thursday warned that Europe will run out of jet fuel in “six weeks or so” if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on.

Birol told The Associated Press that the strait’s closure has caused “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.” The closure has caused the price of oil and gas to skyrocket globally, with more risks to come if it does not open in the coming weeks.

“In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so [of] jet fuel left,” he told the outlet. “If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz … I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”

Birol noted that the worst outcomes will be seen in developing countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia, though most countries will feel the unevenly distributed pain caused by the closure. Birol said that many countries “will go from the high inflation numbers to coming close to slow growth or even to recession in some cases” if the strait is not open until the end of May.

Iran has twice shut down the strait, first after the conflict began and then after reaching a 14-day ceasefire agreement with the U.S. last week. Iranian officials cited Israel’s strikes on Lebanon as a violation of its agreement. It is unclear if the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon reached on Thursday will impact the strait’s closure.

If no agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the strait, “Everybody is going to suffer,” Birol told the AP.

The IEA head said that allowing the more than 110 oil tankers and more than 15 carriers holding liquefied natural gas in the Persian Gulf through the strait “is not enough” to resolve the energy crisis. It could take several months before levels of production seen before the conflict can return.

“Over 80 key assets in the region have been damaged,” he said. “And out of these 80, more than one-third are severely or very severely damaged. It will be extremely optimistic to believe that it will [be] very quick. It will take gradually, gradually, up to two years to come back where we were before the war.”

Birol recalled the rock band Dire Straits during his interview, adding that it’s “a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world.”

The U.S. on Monday deployed a blockade to prevent tankers and other vessels from passing through the crucial trade passage, where roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes. President Trump deployed U.S. ships to obstruct the strait after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed Saturday.

Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair, said Thursday that the blockade prompted 13 ships to make “the wise choice of turning around.”

“As we continue to hold this blockade at the order of the secretary and the president, any vessel that fails to comply with our instructions will be dealt with accordingly,” he told reporters at a briefing at the Pentagon.

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