DES MOINES, Iowa — It’s finally decision day in Iowa.
The big question is whether the voters of the Hawkeye State can deliver a major surprise, confounding all the polls and prognostications.
The big wildcard is the weather, with snow blanketing the state and temperatures in Des Moines forecast to range from a low of minus 19 degrees to a high of minus 1 degree.
“Nobody can predict what the electorate is going to look like tomorrow,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters at a campaign stop in Dubuque on Sunday.
Still, virtually everyone expects former President Trump to win.
Trump leads by 35 points in the Iowa polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). The final, highly respected Des Moines Register poll, released Saturday evening, put Trump up by 28 points.
But Trump’s final push for an overwhelming victory has been disrupted by the weather conditions, forcing the cancellation of three of the four rallies he had planned for the final weekend of campaigning.
In the one rally that did go ahead, in Indianola, Trump urged his supporters to caucus as if “we’re one point down.”
That remark reflected a fear of complacency among the Trump team.
Some aides have also begun subtly lowering expectations, talking about the fact that a win of any margin still counts. Team Trump still winces at memories of 2016, when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) defeated him in the caucuses.
Even so, the fervor of Trump’s supporters should not be underestimated.
His rally in Indianola was packed out, despite the subzero temperatures and slippery roads.
Prior to the former president’s appearance, the audience was played one video outlining the mechanics of how to caucus and another, with quite a different tone, talking about the nation’s challenges and featuring the refrain “so God made Trump.”
No other candidate could draw such a crowd or make such a claim.
Gene Buttrey, an Air Force veteran from Indianola, attended the event in an American-flag shirt and a “God, Guns and Trump” baseball cap.
Buttrey, a caucus chair for Trump, told The Hill that his support for the former president was based on the belief that he is “a man that keeps his promise. He has not lied to the American people.”
Buttrey did not dismiss the other GOP candidates out of hand. But he said that they had shown insufficient loyalty to the former president.
Figures like former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and DeSantis “have certain strong characteristics, but the thing of it is, I think they have forgotten what Donald Trump did for them,” Buttrey said.
Another attendee, 68-year-old George Hutton from nearby St. Charles, Iowa, praised the former president’s “determination” and said he would be able to “close the border” and to “take charge of the world, which Biden has not done.”
Rival candidates, particularly Haley, have talked up their electability over Trump.
The Haley campaign amplified a new poll released Sunday, from CBS News/YouGov, which showed the former ambassador defeating President Biden by a bigger margin than either Trump or DeSantis. The poll showed Haley beating President Biden by eight points whereas Trump and DeSantis had advantages of just two points and three points, respectively.
Haley these days gives a stump speech almost by rote, which includes reminders that Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections and that they should not suffer through another “nail biter” this year.
However, the efforts by Haley and DeSantis to assail Trump on grounds of electability have been undermined by Biden’s low approval ratings.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll, also released Sunday, put Biden’s approval rating at just 33 percent, which the network noted is the lowest rating for any occupant of the White House since President George W. Bush sank into the doldrums in the latter half of his second term. Trump’s low point as president was 36 percent.
There are also lingering doubts about whether Haley draws quite enough passion from her supporters — especially given the bleak conditions.
The Des Moines Register poll found that just 9 percent of her supporters feel “extremely enthusiastic” about her candidacy — a significantly lower figure than for Trump or DeSantis, and a serious vulnerability.
As for DeSantis, he continues to hold out hope that Iowa can deliver a comeback of sorts after his well-documented campaign struggles.
Even though DeSantis has now fallen to third place in most polling averages in Iowa — including the one from The Hill/DDHQ — his events feel at least the equal of Haley’s in both attendance and energy levels.
DeSantis backers put a lot of faith in his ground operation, which even independent observers acknowledge is strong.
Ken Cuccinelli, the former Virginia Attorney General and a founder of Never Back Down, the main super-PAC supporting DeSantis, says the group has knocked on between 900,000 and one million doors in Iowa. It's an astronomical number given that the record-high turnout in the Iowa GOP caucuses, set in 2016, was around 187,000.
"We know it will be a difference-maker tomorrow," Cuccinelli told The Hill on Sunday evening. "When you throw in the record-breaking horrible weather, organization is going to be that much more critical to success. I think DeSantis will substantially exceed expectations. I think Haley is going to crash."
Jennifer Turner, a DeSantis supporter from Urbandale, Iowa, told The Hill at an event in West Des Moines that the polls were overrated.
“My friends and neighbors do not align with the polls at all. I think Gov. DeSantis will have a much higher showing than the polls show,” Turner said. “I know very few Nikki Haley supporters.”
DeSantis himself told reporters in Dubuque, “We’re going to do well. I like being underestimated, I like being the underdog.”
But, for all the candidates, it’s getting to the point when their outcome lurches out of their control. Instead, their fates will be in the hands of Iowans making their way to 1,567 caucus sites on Monday evening.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
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