Winning the war in Ukraine is about more than just numbers

A common question the media asks is how much money Russia has left to sustain the war against Ukraine. In response, experts discuss the burgeoning budget deficit, high interest rates, anemic investment and the fact that war costs have caused sharp reductions in public sector salaries, pensions, health and education.  

Everyone is waiting for a gamechanger that hasn’t arrived yet. The recent increase in the global oil price offers only marginal benefit to Russia, since 20 to 40 percent of its oil export capacity has been rendered at least temporarily inoperative by Ukrainian drone attacks. In fact, both the Russian and Ukrainian economies are under severe duress.

Leaving aside the political and moral questions, Russia has strong economic reasons to stop its aggression against Ukraine. Its economy is suffering greatly, and has now entered into a general recession, having already been in industrial recession since the second quarter of 2025.

Teachers, doctors and nurses complain about unpaid salaries. Many companies, even in the defense industrial sector, are cutting back hours or laying off workers as the government delays paying them. In a recent speech to the Russia’s main employers’ association, Putin announced reductions in state subsidies to business and even asked oligarchs for “voluntary” financial support.

What happens when the war’s economic cost exhausts funding? Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively low at about 25 percent, but borrowing on international capital markets is virtually impossible due to sanctions. Not even “friends forever” China is willing to lend Russia money.

Taxes on business and the general public have increased. Further steps might be to print money, incurring further inflation, or to freeze citizens’ personal bank accounts. That may sound drastic, but similar hardships occurred in 1992 and 1998, when inflation and devaluations wiped out savings. Going further back, during World War II, Stalin issued non-interest-bearing IOUs, which most people distrusted and threw away.

Russia has many reasons to end the conflict. Its infrastructure is regularly hit by Ukrainian drones and missiles, clear and embarrassing evidence that Russia cannot defend its huge territory. Ukrainian strikes go deep into Russia, damaging oil and gas facilities, pipelines, ports, refineries and key industries like chemical and metal plants. Russia keeps fighting, but the rapidly rising costs of the war are becoming more apparent to average Russians.

Businesses are entering survival mode, and many Russian individuals and enterprises are in a pre-bankruptcy state, facing declining demand, high interest rates and rising taxes. Recent reductions in the Central Bank discount rate have failed to reverse the decline in business confidence. The negative psychological effect is reflected in the overall economy. 

This is to say nothing of the estimated 350,000 Russian soldiers killed in action, although most of those losses come from the more remote and poorer regions, not from Moscow or St. Petersburg.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian economy is mainly supported by European aid. This support will likely continue for as long as there is political will in Europe. However, given the broader geopolitical energy crisis, how long Europeans will be willing and able to keep helping is an urgent question. Ukraine is also short on manpower not yet capable of launching a large-scale offensive to push the Russians back, even if it can hold its own.

Thus, we see two very strong political wills clashing. Beyond military and economic conflicts, a major psychological battle is taking place. Who will come out on top? We believe the Ukrainians will. 

This war isn’t just about which economy is stronger or who has more missiles, although that is very important. It is about spirit. Ukrainians are fighting for their national identity, defending their own land, repelling an invader who arrogantly invaded them. The invader lacks a compelling rationale; it has a spirit of grabbing territory “because it is ours.” That is not the same motivation as those fighting for survival.

Russia, despite its larger manpower resources, will likely have to desist and even retreat. Its soldiers have little understanding of what they are fighting for, and according to widely circulated reports, are suffering extremely low morale. Even though they are subjected to extensive propaganda, the brainwashing wears off when confronted with battlefield realities and incompetent and corrupt commanders.

The statistics of this war provide only a partial understanding of it. For the answer to the real question of how long it can continue, you have to understand the level of motivation on each side. By that measure, the Ukrainians have the advantage. 

Natasha Udensiva is a lecturer at the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs. Ed Verona is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center.

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