(NEXSTAR) – With mortgage rates stubbornly climbing for much of 2023, prospective buyers in many U.S. cities watched as their dream home faded further out of reach – but in some cities house shoppers actually saw their buying power increase.
A new study from online real estate marketplace Point2 looked at census data for the 100 largest U.S. cities to see how the average affordable home price changed from Nov. 2022 to Nov. 2023.
When it comes to defining an "affordable" home, the study assumed a 20% down payment, a 30-year fixed mortgage and monthly payments less than 30% of income.
These are the safest small towns and cities in every state: report After factoring in the different mortgage rates (7% in 2022 vs. 7.5% in November, 2023), Point2 found that buying power actually increased in a number of high-priced real estate markets, thanks in part to income growth. In top-ranked Irvine, California, buyers can afford a $498,161 home in 2023, on average, up $53,051 from last year's figure. Irvine is followed by another pricey California city, San Francisco, where buying power rose by $42,354. Rounding out the top five are Anchorage, Alaska ($39,819); Washington, D.C. ($35,612); and Jersey City, New Jersey ($34,851).
Also among the 50 cities where buying power grew were Honolulu ($34,052); Las Vegas ($26,849); Oakland, California; Boston ($11,478); Aurora, Colorado ($9,225); San Jose, California ($8,758); Austin, Texas ($8,225); Los Angeles ($5,186); Memphis, Tennessee ($2,386); and Nashville, Tennessee ($250).
Homeownership is a cornerstone of the "American Dream," along with marriage, children, cars and healthcare. A recent analysis from Investopedia found the lifetime cost of that dream to be an estimated $3,455,305, well out of reach for the average American with a bachelor's degree who will make about $2.3 million during that same time, according to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.
As for those cities where buying power slid away, Lincoln, Nebraska led all others. The average buyer in Lincoln could afford a $229,706 home in Lincoln in 2022, but, thanks to home prices, mortgage rates and a more modest rise in income, that same buyer would only be able to afford a $191,053 home in 2023.
Lincoln is followed by Tulsa, Oklahoma where home buyers lost, on average $34,958 in buying power, followed by Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (-$30,751); Kansas City, Missouri (-$29,694); and Wichita, Kansas (-$29,290).
Also among the cities that lost buying power were Lubbock, Texas (-$20,588); Raleigh, North Carolina (-$16,639); St. Louis (-$14,033), Cleveland (-$7,956); Indianapolis (-$7,601); Louisville (-$4,717); Denver (-$4,642); Chicago (-$4,059); New Orleans (-$3,939); Portland, Oregon (-$3,702); Tampa, Florida (-$1,010); and Albuquerque, New Mexico (-$142).
Point2 also looked at affordability on a square footage basis and found that home shoppers in some cities essentially lost square footage the size of an average bedroom (132 square feet) or more. Because the relationship of median income, home prices and price per square foot vary from city to city, prospective buyers who lost the most purchasing power didn't necessarily lose the most square footage, the researchers point out. See the 10 biggest drops since last year:
Market2022 Affordable Space2023 Affordable spaceDetroit, MI1,997 sq. ft.1,624 sq. ft.Tulsa, OK1,575 sq. ft.1,234 sq. ft.Wichita, KS1,958 sq. ft.1,645 sq. ft.Lincoln, NE1,557 sq. ft.1,260 sq. ft.Toledo, OH1,853 sq. ft.1,591 sq. ft.Oklahoma City, OK1,603 sq. ft.1,343 sq. ft.Winstom-Salem, NC1,458 sq. ft.1,221 sq. ft.El Paso, TX1,296 sq. ft.1,066 sq. ft.Lexinton-Fayette, KY1,526 sq. ft. 1,298 sq. ft.Kansas City, Mo.1,616 sq. ft.1,389 sq. ft.(Point2)
As we reach the close of 2023, there is some good news for buyers hoping to reenter the market – in the last few days interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell below 7% after reaching a high of 7.79% this fall.
"While the lock-in effect of higher mortgage rates has stalled the real estate market in 2023, the momentum is moving in the right direction for stronger sales activity in 2024," Jessica Lautz, National Association of Realtors deputy chief economist and vice president wrote in a news release.
The NAR is forecasting that mortgage interest rates will average 6.3% over the course of 2024.
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