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Opinion Why is Trump’s administration arguing drugging women isn’t harmful? Opinions - Criminal Justice | 1 minute ago

Trump aims to flex political muscle in State of the Union Morning Report | 7 minutes ago

Here’s how Trump’s polling has changed since last year Administration | 1 hour ago

Key things to watch for in Pennsylvania, Maine special elections   Campaign | 1 hour ago

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End, don’t mend, the prime-time State of the Union address  Administration | 1 hour ago

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Trump aims to flex political muscle in State of the Union

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▪ What to watch for in Trump’s address

▪ Democrats plan counterrallies, response

▪ Calls rise for US accountability over Epstein

▪ Russia-Ukraine war hits four-year mark

President Trump is seeking to reassert himself to Congress and the country with today’s State of the Union address as he seeks to tout what he views as wins from his first year back in office while the administration wrestles with negative indicators ahead of the midterm elections.

Trump has promised his 9 p.m. ET address is “going to be a long speech.” His annual congressional speeches in his first term averaged an hour and 20 minutes, and his address to a joint session of Congress last year clocked in at more than 90 minutes.

While one speech is ultimately unlikely to significantly change much of the country’s views about Trump, it is the most high-profile address for the president ahead of November’s elections and offers an opportunity to reclaim his political footing.

Trump’s approval rating has generally trended downward since the middle of last year and now stands at 42.1 percent while his disapproval rating is 56.2 percent, according to the Decision Desk HQ polling index. Both figures are near records for his second term.

The public has soured on its view of the president’s handling of the economy for months, as Trump has sought to bring down prices. He reached a new high in economic disapproval from the public, dating back to the start of his first term, at 59 percent in an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll earlier this month.

Trump has also been struggling with views over his handling of immigration, another issue that historically was considered a strength. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week showed 38 percent of adults approve of his immigration agenda, the lowest mark of his second term, following backlash over enhanced immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis and other major U.S. cities.

Tuesday’s speech will present an opportunity for Trump to shift the narrative on these issues while touting the administration’s actions on a range of topics. The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports on some of the positive numbers and developments Trump is likely to point to in his speech.

The U.S. jobs report exceeded expectations last month as the economy added 130,000 new roles and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3 percent. Days later, data released by the Labor Department showed inflation at 2.4 percent year over year, lower than anticipated.

Yet data released Friday showed the U.S. economy grew far slower than expected at the end of last year. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in the final three months of 2025, roughly half of what economists were expecting. 

A big question heading into Tuesday’s speech is how Trump discusses tariffs. The president received a major defeat at the Supreme Court on Friday when a majority struck down most of his wide-ranging tariffs, which have made up a large part of his economic policy of his second term.

While most Americans agreed with the court’s decision in a new poll, the president has taken a defiant posture, pushing forward and laying the groundwork to rebuild his tariff wall against every U.S. trading partner. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports the tariff decision has set the stage for a bitter internal battle within the GOP.

Lawmakers on Tuesday night will be closely following what the president says on two other major topics: a potential U.S. military strike on Iran, and where negotiations go next on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown.

How Trump approaches talking about immigration tactics, and his embattled Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, will be noteworthy in the speech. He held the line when Democrats were calling for her resignation and isn’t likely to back away from defending her. But how much and the way he talks about immigration could signal what’s to come from the White House this year.

Trump’s tone in addressing Congress and the Supreme Court may also hint how he plans to work with the branches, or try to dominate them, in year two.

The president slammed “disloyal” Republicans in Congress and Supreme Court justices following the tariff ruling. Some members of the court are expected to be in attendance at the Capitol, as is custom.

When asked if the justices who voted against his tariffs were still invited, Trump said “barely.”

“To be honest, I could care less if they come or not,” he said.

▪ The Hill: Five things to watch at the State of the Union.

▪ The Hill: How Trump’s polling has changed.

Get The Hill’s live take on how the State of the Union unfolded for Trump and Congress. Join editor-in-chief Ian Swanson, Congress editor Regina Zilbermints, White House editor Rema Rahman and associate editor Colin Meyn for an in-depth discussion followed by a live audience Q&A Wednesday at noon ET. Register here

Smart Take with Blake Burman

Trump delivers the State of the Union address tonight, highlighting what he views as successes in his first year back in office. The speech comes as he has a major decision ahead, involving potential strikes on Iran. The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is now off the coast of Israel, and the USS Abraham Lincoln is in the waters off Iran. I asked retired Gen. Philip Breedlove about that strategic positioning. 

“That carrier off the west coast of Israel can also be very offensive from that position, but it is also uniquely positioned to help defend Israel. They are both in an offensive position,” Breedlove said.

Trump will travel to Texas on Friday, which will be closely watched politically as there’s a major Republican primary in that state. But the coming days are likely to be defined by the decision the commander in chief makes, one way or another, involving potential military action on Iran.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

3 Things to Know Today

Trump denied reports that Gen. Dan Caine, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has advised him against striking Iran with a warning that it could pose substantial risks. The president said Caine would like to avoid a war but believes it can be won.

The office of U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro has decided to end its pursuit of a criminal case against six Democrats who urged military service members not to comply with unlawful orders last fall, NBC News reported. It comes after the office failed to secure an indictment against them.

The masked man seen on the porch of Nancy Guthrie ahead of her kidnapping appears to have visited her house the day before the abduction, multiple outlets reported. Officials have still not reached a breakthrough in finding the mother of “Today” show anchor Savannah Guthrie.

SPANBERGER’S SPOTLIGHT: Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) is set to take the national stage following Trump’s address when she gives the Democratic response to the State of the Union.

Spanberger’s selection continues what has been a notable few months for her.

She easily won Virginia’s gubernatorial race in November to become the commonwealth’s first female governor, flipping the governor’s mansion from red to blue. Her victory was seen as a sign of strong Democratic turnout heading into the midterms, as well as her own political prowess.

Now, she’s the latest in a line of high-profile figures who have given the opposition party’s official response to the president’s address. While those who have given the response have had mixed political futures, they all were seen as rising stars within their party when they were chosen.

Spanberger’s speech is one of several ways Democrats are planning to respond and protest Trump’s address Tuesday.

Several House and Senate Democrats plan to skip Trump’s speech entirely to attend other events opposing his agenda. One of them is a counterrally called the “People’s State of the Union,” held on the National Mall.

The rally will include “everyday Americans most impacted by Trump’s dangerous agenda.”

Democrats are also expected to invite various guests to the speech to call attention to controversies of Trump’s presidency, including survivors of Jeffrey Epstein and those impacted by immigration enforcement actions.

▪ The Hill: What to know about Dems’ protest plans.

FEMA CONSTRAINED: One of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) key functions is “significantly constrained” amid the DHS funding gap, The Washington Post reports.

The Office of National Continuity Programs is critical in keeping the government running in cases of national emergency. But an email sent to acting FEMA head Karen Evans warned continuity operations would be at risk if such an emergency occurred during the lapse in appropriations, the Post reported.

The email reportedly notes how trainings and exercises deemed nonessential will reduce federal readiness in the event of a catastrophe.

The report comes as the office is planning for Trump’s State of the Union, in which most of the government is gathered in the same place with the exception of a Cabinet-level “designated survivor.”

DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told the Post that operations for the State of the Union remain unaffected.

GONZALES UNDER PRESSURE: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) is facing condemnation and some calls to resign even from members of his own party following allegations that he had an affair with a staffer who died after lighting herself on fire last year.

The San Antonio Express-News reported last week on text messages that showed the aide who worked in Gonzales’s Uvalde, Texas, office wrote to another staffer last April saying, “I had an affair with our boss and I’m fine.” The outlet also published an interview with the aide’s widower, who accused Gonzales of abusing his power in becoming romantically involved with her.

Gonzales has denied the allegations, calling them “personal smears” by his primary opponent to “score political points.”

But multiple House GOP colleagues came out Monday calling on Gonzales to resign or end his reelection bid amid the allegations.

“Tony Gonzales should resign immediately and be held fully accountable for what he’s done. She and her family deserved better. And Texans deserve a congressman who does not prey on women,” Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said on X.

“America deserves better. Tony should drop out of the race,” Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) said.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Gonzales must address the allegations, calling them “very serious.” He said now is “too early to prejudge” the situation but noted he had endorsed Gonzales for reelection before the allegations came out.

Johnson said he spoke to Gonzales and told him to address it with his constituents.

Gonzales is facing a competitive primary challenge for renomination to his seat, with the primary just more than a week away. YouTuber Brandon Herrera is trying again to oust Gonzales, running to his right, after nearly defeating him in the primary two years ago.

▪ San Antonio Express-News: What the aide told police after setting herself on fire.

▪ The Texas Tribune: Texts show Gonzales asked aide for explicit pictures.

REFUND LAWSUIT: FedEx is suing the federal government for a refund following the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, seemingly the first one filed by a major U.S. company in its aftermath.

The lawsuit doesn’t state how much FedEx has paid in tariffs since Trump first imposed them but is seeking a “full refund.” The company said in September that it expected it would face a $1 billion loss to its earnings because of U.S. trade policies, CNBC reported.

While the court ruled Trump exceeded his authority in imposing the tariffs, it didn’t weigh in on what’s expected to be a complicated process of refunding importers who have paid them for the past year.

The lawsuit comes as Senate Democrats introduced legislation Monday to require the administration to refund up to $175 billion collected through the invalidated tariffs.

ANOTHER ARREST: Former U.K. Ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson became the second high-profile figure to be arrested over his ties to Epstein amid the ongoing attention around the Epstein files, following the arrest of former Prince Andrew.

Mandelson was arrested Monday reportedly on suspicion of misconduct in public office, the same charge that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested for last week. Mountbatten-Windsor was released after being detained pending an investigation into him.

Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein has received significant scrutiny in recent months as the Trump administration released more of the Epstein files. Some of the files appear to show the former U.K. diplomat leaking sensitive political and market information to Epstein, NBC News reported.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer dismissed Mandelson in September over revelations of his continued ties to Epstein even after the disgraced financier pleaded guilty to soliciting prostitution from a minor.

While neither Mountbatten-Windsor nor Mandelson was detained in relation to allegations of sexual misconduct, their arrests are notable victories for survivors and advocates who had been pushing for greater accountability for those tied to Epstein.

Democrats have cited the arrests to push for greater accountability for other figures, noting U.K. authorities have been more aggressive in bringing charges.

“In UK, they are prosecuting the Epstein class ⁦[Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.)] & I have exposed. We need accountability in the United States,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said in a post on X.

Democrats on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which is investigating Epstein, struck a similar note.

“As we have said before: no one is above the law. We will make sure accountability and justice come to everyone in Epstein’s world,” they said on X.

Another high-profile figure stepped back from a public role Monday as wellness and antiaging doctor Peter Attia is leaving his role as a contributor for CBS News over correspondence he had with Epstein.

The development also comes as the committee is set to hear testimony later this week from former President Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who agreed to testify before the committee following a public back-and-forth over their potential testimony.

▪ The Hill: Epstein files investigated as possible motive for Mar-a-Lago intruder.

▪ The Guardian: Epstein files cast shadow on faculty, students.

ANOTHER DEPARTURE: Another top official is leaving the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) following recent leadership shake-ups at the agency.

The CDC announced Monday that Ralph Abraham is leaving his position as principal deputy director, the second highest-ranking role, after less than three months on the job. The agency cited “unforeseen family obligations” as the reason.

Abraham’s exit comes amid a wider overhaul of the CDC’s leadership, as former interim Director Jim O’Neill was moved from his position earlier this month.

The Hill’s Joseph Choi reports the departure seems to have been abrupt, as a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services indicated Abraham was staying in his role after National Institutes of Health Director Jay Bhattacharya was announced as the CDC’s new interim director.

Abraham previously served as surgeon general for Louisiana and a member of the U.S. House from the state.

▪ The Hill: Health experts worried by Bhattacharya’s growing power.

REPORT BLOCKED: The public release of former special counsel Jack Smith’s report detailing Trump’s alleged mishandling of documents at Mar-a-Lago has been blocked.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon ruled in favor of Trump on Monday in preventing the report from being made public, finding its disclosure would cause “irreparable harm” to Trump and the other former co-defendants in the case, Walt Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira.

Smith’s report on Trump’s conduct related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot was released as Smith wrapped up his work before the president returned to office. But the Mar-a-Lago report had been kept private as charges were pending against Nauta and De Oliveira.

Those charges were quickly dropped after Trump took office.

Democrats and other groups have sought the report’s release since then, but Cannon has rejected the efforts.

The president will participate in executive time at 9 a.m. He will participate in the annual State of the Union luncheon at 12:30 p.m. and deliver the State of the Union address at 9 p.m.

The House will convene at 10 a.m.

The Senate will meet at 2 p.m.

GORSUCH TAKES AIM: Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch went on the offensive against his colleagues on the high court’s bench over its recent tariff decision, arguing they were inconsistently applying a legal doctrine across different presidential administrations.

The doctrine being debated is known as the “major questions doctrine,” which states the president needs clear authorization from Congress when claiming it delegated significant power to the executive branch, The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld and Ella Lee report.

Gorsuch and his colleagues in the court’s six-person majority invoked the doctrine to rule against Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his wide-ranging tariffs.

But Gorsuch wrote his own solo opinion accusing his colleagues of inconsistency across decisions that invalidated former President Obama’s environmental regulations, former President Biden’s student debt relief and Trump’s tariffs.

That included the court’s liberals, who don’t acknowledge the doctrine exists, and the three conservative dissenters, whom he said are too willing to carve out exceptions to the doctrine.

Only he and Chief Justice John Roberts have stayed true to the doctrine, Gorsuch said.

▪ The Hill: Court to hear oil companies’ bid to toss climate change lawsuit.

ANNIVERSARY: The war between Russia and Ukraine reached its four-year anniversary today with no clear signs of the conflict ending anytime soon.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 in what Russian President Vladimir Putin said was a “special military operation.” He had anticipated the war to only last a few days, but Ukraine has defied those expectations.

The war has been the most significant and devastating conflict for Europe since World War II, claiming the lives of nearly 2 million soldiers by some estimates. The conflict has largely turned into a stalemate after Russia seized a few provinces in eastern Ukraine but has failed to make inroads past that.

Trump came into office vowing to quickly end the war, but attempts at talks haven’t proved fruitful. He has also at times expressed frustration with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin for various reasons, including not being more willing to reach a deal.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner recently met with Russian officials in Geneva, Switzerland, to continue talks about reaching a settlement. But an agreement acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia has proved elusive.

▪ BBC: Russia feeling the effects of war.

▪ NPR: Ukrainian military chaplain shares wisdom from frontlines.

End, don’t mend, the prime-time State of the Union address, The Hill’s Chris Stirewalt writes.

Here’s how we’re stopping DIY use-of-force investigations in Ohio, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost (R) writes in The Hill.

And finally … The U.S. women’s hockey team, coming off a gold medal win at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, has reportedly declined an invitation from the president to attend the State of the Union address.

The Associated Press reported logistics played a role in the decision, with many of the players not scheduled to return to North America until Monday evening.

“We are sincerely grateful for the invitation extended to our gold medal–winning U.S. Women’s Hockey Team and deeply appreciate the recognition of their extraordinary achievement,” the team said in a statement. “Due to the timing and previously scheduled academic and professional commitments following the Games, the athletes are unable to participate. They were honored to be included and are grateful for the acknowledgment.”

The men’s team, which also won gold, was also invited to attend the speech, though whether they will attend is unclear.

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