34. That may very well become the symbolic magic number in the November presidential election.
In what is shaping up to be a three-person contest between President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the question becomes: Which candidate can garner 34 percent of the popular vote or higher?
While many “experts” still dismiss the possibility of an independent or third-party candidate winning the election, there seems to be a bit more hand-wringing and whistling past the graveyard amongst both Democratic and Republican operatives. Most especially as there is now a possibility that Kennedy may run on the Libertarian Party ticket.
Outlined on this site earlier this week in a piece titled “RFK Jr.’s possible Libertarian bid rankles Democrats,” that possibility is duly noted. As is the growing fear of certain Democratic operatives. And trust me, it is not just Democrats who are viewing that possibility with a great deal of nervousness. It is Republicans as well.
The main reason being — as spelled out in the piece — that by becoming the standard-bearer for the Libertarian Party, Kennedy would be significantly more likely to get on state ballots, including key battleground states.
Democratic strategist Doug Gordon said, “Hijacking the Libertarian Party ballot line won’t change his odds of winning the presidency, which he has no chance at. But it does increase the odds he could play spoiler and hand the keys to the White House back to Trump.”
To paraphrase Hamlet, “Methinks the strategist doth protest too much.”
First, anytime a Democratic strategist or liberal media personality emphatically declares that a certain candidate “has no chance,” I would advise all to go to YouTube and watch the long list of Democratic operatives and liberal pundits “guaranteeing” in 2015 and 2016 that then–New York City businessman Donald Trump has zero chance of getting the Republican nomination and then outright ensuring the nation that he would be embarrassed by Hillary Clinton in the general election.
Those videos should be required viewing for every political science major as well as every political reporter and pundit. It is not about the hate or the contempt in one’s heart for a certain candidate, but rather, what is motivating the voters who increasingly feel abandoned by both political parties.
As a recent real-world example of that — and a possible template for Kennedy — let’s look south toward Argentina, where the populist libertarian Javier Milei was recently elected president.
Said Milei — who campaigned with a symbolic chainsaw to cut down the massive size of the Argentinian government — “Do not be intimidated by the political caste or by parasites who live off the state ... If you make money, it’s because you offer a better product at a better price, thereby contributing to general well-being. Do not surrender to the advance of the state. The state is not the solution.”
RFK Jr. has been delivering a similar message for the last number of months across the country. More than that, he has been reminding voters — most especially young voters — that the Republican and Democratic Parties have essentially failed them and the nation.
Why is that message important? Because, as Milei proved in Argentina, young voters are increasingly open to that message. How successful was Milei constantly pushing that narrative? Almost 70 percent of citizens under the age of 25 voted for him. Young voters who believed the entrenched elites were not only making their present lives miserable but were squandering their futures.
Kennedy’s words and warnings are now resonating with young voters here in the U.S. So much so that he now leads both Biden and Trump with that demographic.
All of that hints at a very interesting political and electoral possibility. What if Kennedy — who “has no chance” and is only going to serve as a “spoiler” — not only runs on the Libertarian Party ticket and gets on key swing state ballots but continues to peel off more and more young and independent voters with a smattering of dissatisfied Democrats and Republicans? Some polls have already shown Kennedy at about 21 percent of the popular vote. With just over nine months to go before the election, what if he grows his support at just over 1 percent per month? Impossible?
Well, in a nation where 70 percent of the voters have said they prefer the Democratic and Republican nominees weren’t named Biden and Trump, the “impossible” might be a much lower hurdle to clear.
Next comes the very serious question of what happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes. Then, as outlined by the National Archives, the presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress.
As noted on the Archives website: “The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes …”
Now, we come back to that magic number: 34.
If Kennedy were to get 34 percent of the vote, there would be a great deal of pressure on the House of Representatives to “do the right thing.”
“Impossible” yet again?
I give you Donald J. Trump being elected our 45th president in 2016 as evidence as to why such a scenario is entirely possible. A scenario which is worrying more and more of the Democratic and Republican elites.
It’s going to be a very interesting — and illuminating — next nine months.
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration. He is the author of the book "The 56: Liberty Lessons From Those Who Risked All to Sign The Declaration of Independence."
Democratic and Republican elites fear RFK Jr.’s growing path to victory
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03.02.2024
34. That may very well become the symbolic magic number in the November presidential election.
In what is shaping up to be a three-person contest between President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the question becomes: Which candidate can garner 34 percent of the popular vote or higher?
While many “experts” still dismiss the possibility of an independent or third-party candidate winning the election, there seems to be a bit more hand-wringing and whistling past the graveyard amongst both Democratic and Republican operatives. Most especially as there is now a possibility that Kennedy may run on the Libertarian Party ticket.
Outlined on this site earlier this week in a piece titled “RFK Jr.’s possible Libertarian bid rankles Democrats,” that possibility is duly noted. As is the growing fear of certain Democratic operatives. And trust me, it is not just Democrats who are viewing that possibility with a great deal of nervousness. It is Republicans as well.
The main reason being — as spelled out in the piece — that by becoming the standard-bearer for the Libertarian Party, Kennedy would be significantly more likely to get on state ballots, including key battleground states.
Democratic strategist Doug Gordon said, “Hijacking the Libertarian Party ballot line won’t change his odds of winning the presidency, which he has no chance at. But it does increase the odds he could play spoiler and hand the........
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