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12:30 REPORT
It’s Tuesday. Did anyone fall for any April Fools' Day pranks? This year felt muted to me. Here’s what is in today's edition:
- Former President Trump has been barred from attacking the judge’s daughter in the upcoming hush money trial.
- The Hill’s Jared Gans has a fascinating read about how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. affects polls between Trump and President Biden. It gives some useful context as to why his presidential bid could influence November’s election results.
- The Biden campaign is targeting Florida this year. Yes, Trump’s home state. And yes, the state where Ron DeSantis (R) is governor.
I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.
📊 RFK Jr.
RFK Jr. likely won't be president. So, why are we talking about him so much?:
There has been a lot of buzz and debate surrounding Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third party presidential bid. He’s only gained enough signatures to appear on six states’ ballots — and is polling close to 10 percent nationally, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ — so it’s a fair to question why he is getting so much attention. But he could very much affect the outcome of November’s election.
To explain why this matters — *insert obligatory Ross Perot mention*: Kennedy is running one of the strongest third-party bids since businessman Ross Perot in 1992. Perot was the most successful third-party candidate in recent history — he received 19 percent of the popular vote but won no electoral votes. Like Perot, Kennedy faces long odds of winning any state but could be a spoiler in influencing the outcome of the election.
Who does Kennedy’s polling hurt?: Polling shows that he pulls from President Biden’s supporters more than former President Trump’s. The Hill’s Jared Gans wrote a helpful explainer of Kennedy's polling compared to Trump and Biden.
Read more: ‘Here’s where the polling stands in a 3-way race with Biden, Trump and RFK Jr.’
The states where RFK Jr. has enough signatures: Kennedy’s campaign says it has enough signatures to qualify for ballots in states including North Carolina, Utah, New Hampshire and Hawaii. The campaign estimates it will need $15 million and 1 million signatures to qualify for ballots in all 50 states, according to NPR.
^ His VP pick should help with that: Nicole Shanahan is a wealthy lawyer and entrepreneur.
Kennedy’s views are all over the place: He’s an environmental lawyer and wants to address the wealth gap. But he is also skeptical of vaccines and has made controversial statements on the COVID-19 pandemic.
➤ MORE READS ON RFK JR.’S PRESIDENTIAL BID:
- ‘RFK Jr. may have missed a major opportunity with his VP pick’: NPR
- ‘Conservative media sours on RFK Jr. as an independent’: Axios
- ‘Why Silicon Valley Reactionaries Love RFK Jr.’: The Nation
- ‘Voters wishing for an alternative to Trump and Biden got one. Unfortunately, it’s RFK Jr.’: Op-ed in The Los Angeles Times
➤ RFK JR’S LATEST CONTROVERSY:
Kennedy argued Monday that Biden is a “greater threat to democracy” than Trump.
He told CNN’s Erin Burnett: “President Biden is a much worse threat to democracy. And the reasons for that is President Biden is the first candidate in history, the first president in history that has used the federal agencies to censor political speech.”
📺 Watch Kennedy’s CNN interview
📰 News This Morning
7 people from José Andrés’s food charity were killed:
World Central Kitchen, the food nonprofit founded by celebrity chef José Andrés, said it is halting operations after an Israeli strike killed seven of its workers, The Washington Post reported.
Do we know Israel is responsible? Yes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the strike but said it was “unintentional.”
Who died?: “The attack on the aid convoy killed three British nationals, U.S.-Canadian dual national, one Palestinian worker and citizens of Australia and Poland, according to the group, which has been prominently involved in Gaza relief efforts.” (The Washington Post)
Reaction from Andrés: “The Israeli government needs to stop this indiscriminate killing. It needs to stop restricting humanitarian aid, stop killing civilians and aid workers, and stop using food as a weapon. No more innocent lives lost.” Read his full X post
What to know about José Andrés’s nonprofit 'World Central Kitchen,' via Axios
💵 Trump's Legal Battles
You’re cut off:
The judge in former President Trump’s New York hush money case expanded the gag order to bar the former president from attacking his daughter.
That’s oddly specific — why?: Trump has posted a number of attacks on Judge Juan Merchan’s adult daughter, Loren Merchan, who worked at a progressive political consulting firm. (Her firm’s clients have included President Biden, Vice President Harris and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.)
💡Why this matters: Trump faces 34 charges related to alleged hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in 2016. The trial is expected to begin April 15. During Trump’s recent New York civil fraud case, he repeatedly slammed the judge’s wife and son.
➤ THIS MORNING — TRUMP FIRES BACK:
Trump went on a tear on Truth Social, slamming the expanded gag order.
Excerpt of Trump’s post: “I just was informed that another corrupt New York Judge, Juan Merchan, GAGGED me so that I can not talk about the corruption and conflicts taking place in his courtroom with respect to a case that everyone, including the D.A., felt should never have been brought.” Read His full post
🫵 The Campaign Trail
Does Trump’s VP pick even matter?:
The Hill’s Niall Stanage wrote a fascinating column today on the speculation over former President Trump’s running mate.
“The former president is so uncommonly polarizing that there will be few voters who can be shifted one way or another by a vice-presidential candidate. Trump being Trump, his eclipse of whoever is on the lower half of the ticket is likely to be total.”
OK, let’s play the game. Who do you think Trump will choose? These candidates have all been mentioned:
- Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.)
- Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)
- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)
- Former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic party in 2022
- Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake (R)
Analysis: Read Stanage’s column on whether any of those candidates could significantly change the dynamic of the ticket.
➤ TIDBIT — BIDEN HAS HIS EYES ON ANOTHER STATE:
The Hill’s Alex Gangitano reports that President Biden’s reelection campaign is trying to flip Florida to blue.
Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez’s reasoning: “Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.
For context: Trump has a nearly 13 percent lead over Biden in Florida, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ's polling average.
🐝 Internet Buzz
🥪 Celebrate: Today is National Peanut Butter and Jelly Day!
👔 Are neckties in or out?: The Wall Street Journal’s Jacob Gallagher reports that “neckties are waging a comeback.” The gist: “Presidents increasingly don’t wear them. Neither do CEOs. Which might make ties the riskiest fashion accessory yet.” A recent example: At a major fundraiser last week, Biden, former President Obama and former President Clinton did not wear ties.
🔎 Interesting read: Washingtonian’s Jessica Sidman reports that “an alleged Russian spy was the chef of DC’s Mari Vanna.” 👀 The full read
🗓 On The Agenda
The House and Senate are out. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C. (all times Eastern)
- 1:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre briefs reporters. Livestream
- 2:30 p.m.: Former President Trump speaks on Biden's border policies in Grand Rapids, Mich. Livestream
- 6 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Green Bay, Wis. Livestream
- Today: Primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, Wisconsin and New York. Plus, runoffs in Arkansas and Mississippi.
👋 And Finally…
Because you made it this far, here’s a dog who just couldn’t wait to eat the birthday cake.
Stay Engaged
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View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time!
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