Here’s what to know about the groups shaping the Virginia redistricting referendum

Tens of millions of dollars are being funneled into different sides of a high-profile redistricting referendum in Virginia as voters consider a new congressional map that could net Democrats as many as four seats ahead of the November midterm elections. 

The state is holding a referendum on Tuesday, where Democratic lawmakers are asking voters if they can temporarily pass a new House map before 2030, which would give the party a 10-1 edge in the state’s congressional delegation. Virginia currently has a 6-5 Democratic edge.

Yet, little is known publicly about the majority of the contributions driving the “yes” and “no” campaigns because most donations are coming from dark money groups who don’t have to disclose their donors.

The stakes of the Virginia election are big: If voters pass the Democratic gerrymander, it would give Democrats a handful of seats to pick up in the fall.  

Republicans, who have sought to redistrict mid-cycle in states like Texas and Missouri, see a Florida special session later this month as their best last chance to net seats on their side as the two parties battle for control over the House. 

Here’s what to know about the groups driving this Virginia referendum:

Much of this is fueled by dark money groups

Dark money groups, which are generally registered as 501(c)(4) groups that don’t have to disclose the nature of their funders, are largely fueling the campaigns for and against the Virginia redistricting referendum. 

Virginians for Fair Elections, the campaign supporting the ballot measure, has raised nearly $65 million according to the latest figures available on Friday — the most out of any of the groups organizing for or against the redistricting ballot measure. 

The Fairness Project, based in Washington, D.C., has given over $10 million for the effort. On the organization’s website, it describes itself as a “nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to advancing social and economic justice via ballot measures.” The group works on progressive issues, with current and past ballot initiatives including Colorado redistricting, protecting abortion access and efforts to throw out a new GOP-gerrymandered map in Missouri; its executive director, Kelly Hall, has worked on efforts to expand Medicaid in addition to the passage of the Affordable Care Act. 

Because the group is registered as a 501(c)(4), it doesn’t have to disclose who funds it. 

A similar dynamic plays out with House Majority Forward, which has given around $38 million in total to Virginians for Fair Elections. The group, also registered as a 501(c)(4), is linked to House Democratic leadership’s super PAC, House Majority PAC.

Mike Smith, a Democratic strategist who’s previously served as a senior adviser for the House Democrats’ campaign arm and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), has served as the president of the group in addition to the House Majority PAC.  

The Hill reached out to The Fairness Project for comment. A spokesman for House Majority Forward declined to comment. 

Among the campaigns opposing the redistricting referendum, Virginians for Fair Maps RC — a name that almost mirrors the “yes” campaign — has brought in the most. A dark money group with the same name — Virginians for Fair Maps — has given the opposition campaign close to $22 million. 

Details around who backs the dark money group are also unclear. The Hill reached out to Virginians for Fair Maps spokesman Finlay Lee for comment. 

Per Aspera Policy Incorporated has given at least close to $9 million to another anti-redistricting group, Justice for Democracy. Per Aspera Police Incorporated is yet another dark money group; previous reporting has noted that Republican megadonor and venture capitalist Peter Thiel has previously given to the group.

But some of the players are familiar

While dark money groups are dominating the contributions for the different sides of the redistricting referendum, there’s still clear clues about who else is backing these efforts.  

Familiar names that are also supporting the “yes” campaign include the League of Conservation Voters Inc, which donated $300,000; Pelosi, who donated $20,000; and Service Employees International Union (SEIU), which gave $500,000. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) have also donated to the effort. 

Virginia Scope reporter Brandon Jarvis reported that former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has given more than $500,000 in efforts against the redistricting measure. 

Nearly $100M has been spent between four major groups

All told, close to $100 million has been raised between four groups leading efforts on both sides of the referendum as of Friday. 

While Virginians for Fair Elections has received close to $65 million in contributions, anti-redistricting campaigns of Virginians for Fair Maps, Justice for Democracy, Your Vote Matters and No Gerrymandering Virginia raised about a third of that — about $33 million, according to an analysis from The Hill. 

For context: Spending for and against the recent California special election over its own redistricting ballot measure was even higher — well over than $150 million. Over $100 million was also spent on a Wisconsin Supreme Court race last year, which had implications for partisan control on the high court. 

The latest figures underscore how ballot initiatives and state elections have grown in importance — and spending. Ballot initiatives and referendums are increasingly seen as one of the last major vehicles to change state laws and congressional maps, often as a method to work around state lawmakers.  

The fundraising around the Virginia redistricting referendum is only expected to grow ahead of Tuesday, with groups likely to spent over $100 million altogether. 

Figures compiled by firm L2 Data suggested that, as of Thursday, Democrats had a 15-point edge over Republicans in early and absentee voting. And while polling suggests the measure is likely to narrowly pass next week, Democrats say they’re not taking the election for granted. 

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