President Biden needs to sweep nonpartisan voters off their feet and waltz them to the polling stations to vote for him or lose a second term in the November presidential elections.
So far, he has refused to dance.
These critical voters, especially those in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, could decide Biden’s fate the way they did in the 2020 elections. Remember how Donald Trump begged for 11,780 more votes from Georgia to help him change the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections?
This is the result of a two-party system in which winner-takes-all, an electoral college that allows the presidency to be won without winning the popular vote and the increasingly polarized polity. Consequently, using national polls to forecast presidential election outcomes, as is commonly done, can yield false results.
Among the nonpartisans are a small number of voters in each battleground state who will decide if President Joseph Biden or candidate Donald Trump becomes the next U.S. president. Of these voters:
- Fifty-five percent are male
- Fifty-nine percent are younger than 49 years
- Forty-six percent have a high school education or less
- Half are white.
These voters have not been doing well. While the economy is growing, unemployment is down and stock markets reach all-time highs, all these voters see are increasingly higher prices for food and rent that eat much of their paychecks. And all they feel is uncertainty about their present and the future.
Uncertainty breeds anxiety and fear of what tomorrow might bring. These voters have been doing everything they can to make ends meet, but piles of bills block any silver lining on the horizon and communicate unbearable failure. They are frustrated and angry and, as a result, look for someone to blame. President Biden, the country’s leader, becomes a logical target.
Biden and his campaign don’t seem to understand that different voters use different strategies to make decisions, requiring different ways to reach and persuade them.
Voters use three models to make decisions:
- Cognitive: This classical pattern of voter behavior follows a sequence of think-feel-vote. Voters start by forming thoughts and beliefs about a candidate and what they stand for, then develop positive or negative feelings about the candidate, which propel them to vote for or against. Some 50 million voters registered Democrats and 42 million registered Republicans use this model. It is safe to assume that in 2024 most Democrats and Republicans will vote as registered, however unhappy they are with the candidates.
- Affective: In this mode feelings about the candidate drive the act of voting, followed by forming beliefs about the candidate. It is used by the 57 million independent voters leaning either Democratic or Republican; Democrats and Republicans “light.”
- Behavioral: This starts with voting, followed by forming emotions and beliefs about the candidate. The 4.3 million independent voters without any party leaning use this model. The idea is as old as the biblical mode of “Do first, understand later” and its modern uses by Nike’s “Just Do It” slogan and Alka-Seltzer’s “Try it, you’ll like it” commercial.
So far, Biden’s campaign messages seem to focus on the cognitive and affective voters, ignoring the behavioral voters. Such messages have been conveying positive information about the growing economy, low unemployment, climbing stock market, rising consumer sentiment and the need to defend democracy, the southern border and individual rights, including abortion rights.
Neglecting behavioral voters is a sure way to lose the election. To win, Biden must cha-cha these voters to the booths, especially those in battleground states. The dance must be seen as dynamic, not old, or too old. And it must portray a captivating picture of voters’ future, give them hope and assure them he has their backs.
To achieve this, Biden should:
- Identify who exactly these voters are; this is not an easy task, as they are difficult to reach.
- Acknowledge their daily struggles and challenging lives, as many feel invisible and forgotten.
- Empathize with them — feel their pain, as President Clinton did in his successful 1992 presidential campaign.
- Enact helpful policies, like the proposed expansion of funding to support child care and additional student loan cancellation.
- Use uplifting campaign messages reinforced by inspiring music to make them feel good.
- Be more present and visible, as an unseen president might be perceived as having something to hide.
- Dress informally to look less aloof and distant; warm candidates are liked more than cold ones.
- Speak with empathy and enunciate every word.
- Enlist the help of surrogates to spread his vision of a better future for them and their families.
Such communication is, by nature, emotional. They are more sermons than logic, feelings than fact, heart than mind, poetry than reality — much like the speeches congressman and civil rights leader Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) used when he endorsed Biden in 2020 and put him on a winning course. Biden needs thousands of Clyburns to spread his love.
Admittedly, this is a tall order for the Biden campaign. But without an emotional appeal to capture hearts and tango with voters without party leanings, Biden is likely to lose the race.
Would you dance, Mr. President?
Avraham Shama is an award-winning writer and a retired university professor. His doctoral dissertation was about voter decision-making and political marketing.
Biden should put on his dancing shoes and woo nonpartisan voters
3
0
01.03.2024
President Biden needs to sweep nonpartisan voters off their feet and waltz them to the polling stations to vote for him or lose a second term in the November presidential elections.
So far, he has refused to dance.
These critical voters, especially those in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, could decide Biden’s fate the way they did in the 2020 elections. Remember how Donald Trump begged for 11,780 more votes from Georgia to help him change the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections?
This is the result of a two-party system in which winner-takes-all, an electoral college that allows the presidency to be won without winning the popular vote and the increasingly polarized polity. Consequently, using national polls to forecast presidential election outcomes, as is commonly done, can yield false results.
Among the nonpartisans are a small number of voters in each battleground state who will decide if President Joseph Biden or candidate Donald Trump becomes the next U.S. president. Of these voters:
- Fifty-five percent are male
- Fifty-nine percent are younger than 49 years
- Forty-six percent have a high school education or less
- Half are white.
These voters have not been doing well. While the economy is growing, unemployment is down and stock markets reach all-time highs, all these........
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