The results in last night’s Iowa Republican caucuses were hardly surprising. For months, polls have indicated that former President Trump would win an overwhelming victory when the state’s GOP voters delivered their judgment.
His margin of victory over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the contest’s second-place finisher, was, as The New York Times predicted it would be, “more than double the largest margin of victory for a Republican in a competitive previous caucus. Mr. Trump led among every demographic group in the survey. And his voters expressed greater enthusiasm than those of his rivals.”
The Trump voters displayed a kind of loyalty that progressives and “Never Trumpers” still can’t understand. Underlying that loyalty is an intense attachment to Donald Trump himself and an appreciation of his record as president.
So loyal were Trump’s supporters in Iowa that 71 percent of them told pollsters last night that they would consider him fit to serve as president even if he were to be convicted of a crime. He currently faces 91 charges in in four criminal cases.
Loyalty to Trump in Iowa was also fueled by a deep pessimism about the state of the country and its future prospects. Today, only 18 percent of Americans say they are “satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.”
While Iowa’s Republican caucus-goers are not representative of the entire American electorate, it is important to pay attention to both their loyalty to Trump and their pessimism.
Let’s put Trump’s victory in context.
Recall that in 2016, Trump lost the caucuses. He was beaten by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who received 27 percent of the vote to Trump’s 24 percent. Florida’s Sen. Marco Rubio came in third, with 23 percent.
The mere fact that, in eight years, Trump increased his shared of the vote to 51 percent is impressive in and of itself. It is another clear indication of the Trumpification of the Republican Party.
In 2016, Trump performed best among lower-income caucus-goers and in caucuses held in places where there are fewer evangelical voters. This year, his populist profile consolidated his support among these voters even as he also won among college-educated Republicans. Trump did remarkably well with evangelicals as well.
In 2016, Cruz fervently courted evangelicals and did very well among the 64 percent of them who turned out in the caucuses. He received 33 percent of Iowa’s evangelical vote, with Trump coming in just ahead of Rubio among that group, at 21 percent.
And, in a preview of what would unfold in 2020, Trump claimed that Cruz’s Iowa victory was the result of fraud. After the caucuses, the real estate mogul tweeted, “The State of Iowa should disqualify Ted Cruz from the most recent election on the basis that he cheated- a total fraud!”
In another tweet, he said, “Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified.”
I think it is safe to say that this year there will be no allegations from the former president
about cheating or fraud in Iowa, or a request for a do-over.
As last night’s results prove, over the course of the last eight years, Iowa has become Trump country. In fact, The New York Times credits him with transforming the state “from a swing state into a GOP stronghold. He carried the state by more than eight percentage points in 2020 — a 14-point swing since Obama won Iowa in 2012.”
“No other state,” the Times notes, “has shifted as hard toward Republicans in the same period.”
So strong is Trump’s hold on Iowa that this year, he made very few campaingn appearances. DeSantis, by comparison, virtually camped out in Iowa and boasted visiting all 99 counties in the state.
Of course, when Trump did campaign in Iowa, he stole the show.
As CNN noted in its reporting on Trump’s appearance at the traditionally important Iowa State Fair, he “seized the spotlight … swooping overhead in his private plane just as his chief Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was flipping pork chops and greeting potential GOP caucus goers.”
In typical Trumpian style, he “traveled to Iowa with an entourage largely designed to troll DeSantis. It was made up of members of Congress from Florida who have endorsed Trump over their state’s governor.”
Trump secured last night’s victory even though he flouted another tradition, refusing to participate in any of the Republican debates that preceded the Iowa caucuses.
A big reason he was able to win was the dramatic improvement in the support he received among Iowa’s evangelical voters. Entrance polls conducted as caucuses-goers went to the polls last night found that 51 percent of evangelicals supported Trump in comparison to 29 percent support for DeSantis and 13 percent for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
This was the case, Axios notes, “even though Bob Vander Plaats, the state's most prominent evangelical leader and head of The Family Leader — and Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is popular among evangelicals — [backed] DeSantis.”
Much ink has been spilled trying to explain Trump’s hold on the evangelical vote and why evangelicals prefer someone like him, who seems to have no deep religious convictions and has never been a model of piety.
Iowa’s evangelical community was pleased by many of the things that Trump did while he was in the White House; particularly important in that regard were the people he appointed to the United States Supreme Court, and the fact that they helped the court overturn Roe vs. Wade. Additionally, evangelicals, who tend to be very supportive of Israel, give Trump credit for moving the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
And, as has been true among Republicans across the country, evangelical support for Trump in Iowa only grew as he his legal troubles multiplied. Members of that group stuck with the former president because they believe that he is the only person willing and able to fight for them in a country, as Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom coalition, says, that is “anti-American, more anti-Constitution and even more anti-religious liberty.”
This view reflects the fact that being evangelical in Iowa is what The New York Times calls “a cultural and political identity: one in which Christians are considered a persecuted minority, traditional institutions are viewed skeptically and Mr. Trump looms large.”
As one of Trump’s evangelical voters put it, “Trump is our David and our Goliath.”
Finally, last night’s results suggest that Trump has succeeded in tapping into the dark mood of the country. Iowa’s Republican electorate seemed to have been united by their “existential dread about the very foundations of the American experiment” and their belief that, to paraphrase Trump himself, only he can fix it.
New York Times columnist Brett Stephens got it right when he wrote that in 2016 “Trump rode a wave of pessimism to the White House — pessimism his detractors did not share because he was speaking about, and to, an America they either didn’t see or understood only as a caricature. But just as with this year,” Stephens continues, “when liberal elites insist that things are going well while overwhelming majorities of Americans say they are not, Trump’s unflattering view captured the mood of the country.”
Many of this year’s Iowa voters are, according to an AP story, “envisioning something of a demolition project for how the country runs. About 3 in 10 say they are seeking a complete and total upheaval. About an additional 6 in 10 caucus goers say they want substantial changes.”
This suggests, as Stephens argues, that “Trump’s thesis may be truer today than it was the first time he ran on it.”
Trump’s Iowa victory should be a wake-up call. His opponents inside and outside the Republican Party will have to up their game quickly if they want to stop him from returning to the Oval Office.
Austin Sarat (@ljstprof) is the William Nelson Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science at Amherst College. The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Amherst College.
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