On Sunday, Hungarians will go to the polls to decide on their country’s direction for the next four years in an election that looks as if it will be a nail-biter. Viktor Orbán, Europe’s longest-serving prime minister – who has been in power for 16 years and transformed his country into an electoral autocracy – could lose the election. Ahead of the vote, EU officials have high expectations for change in Hungary under a potential new leadership. Politico reported that “the Brussels establishment is praying for [Péter] Magyar to win, hoping a Tisza government will deepen ties with the EU”.

Magyar became a trailblazer when he entered the Hungarian political scene in 2024 after a political scandal implicating the former president Katalin Novák and the minister of justice, Magyar’s ex-wife, Judit Varga. By addressing the socioeconomic concerns of ordinary Hungarians, politicising the run-down healthcare and education systems and highlighting the country’s deteriorating economic situation and corrupt government practices, Magyar has steadily risen in the polls.

And yet while an electoral victory for his Tisza party seems within reach, less than a week before the election observers should not set their expectations too high for the election outcome – or for Magyar’s prospects were he to become Hungary’s new prime minister.

First, although all independent pollsters show Magyar and his Tisza party clearly ahead of Fidesz, the prospect of him actually winning the election remains uncertain. While the elections are free, they are unfair, as Orbán has tilted the electoral playing field in his favour over the years, creating an unfair advantage. Measures include........

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