Workers fly the Cuban flag at half-mast at the Anti-Imperialist Tribune near the U.S. Embassy in Havana, on Jan. 5, 2026, in memory of Cubans who died in Caracas during the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces.Ramon Espinosa/The Associated Press

Robert Rotberg is the founding director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s program on intrastate conflict, a former senior fellow at CIGI and president emeritus of the World Peace Foundation.

Washington expects the final collapse of Fidel Castro’s system of government in Cuba. At least, U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio think that control of Venezuela’s oil means that an independent, communist Cuba is on its deathbed. They may well be right.

Certainly, Mr. Trump’s invasion of Venezuela, with its emphasis on oil and not on restoring democracy, will mean the onset of very hard, even desperate, days for Cuba.

Cuba’s remaining 10 million people are accustomed to hard times. The country is short on food, which is expensive (most of its poultry comes from the U.S.); jobs are scarce; health care is slipping badly; medicines are hard to come by; schooling is difficult; government control is pervasive; and communist commanders tightly curtail all manner of........

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