U.S. President Donald Trump reacts as he speaks during the House Republican Party member retreat at the Kennedy Center in Washington, on Tuesday.MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

Occam’s razor is the principle that the most plausible explanation of events is the simplest. Most often this is true. To account for Donald Trump, however, we need a different hermeneutical instrument.

Say hello to Occam’s kazoo: the principle that the most plausible explanation, so far as Mr. Trump is involved, is invariably the stupidest. To understand his motives in any given situation, pick the most aggressively simple-minded, crudely self-serving, absurdly moronic rationale you can think of. You will not be far wrong.

Take the abduction of Nicolás Maduro. Leave aside its arrant illegality, or the hugely destabilizing implications globally. Why did Mr. Trump do it?

A number of analysts claim to have detected some grand strategic design at work. Surely it was intended to restrict the supply of oil to Mr. Maduro’s sponsors in Cuba. Or no, it was another move in the great game with China, depriving it of an important foothold in South America.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a warning to House Republicans Tuesday: 'Win the........

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