Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre looks on during Question Period in September.Blair Gable/Reuters

The pollsters are trying to tell us something.

For much of the past year, the dominant strain of Canadian political coverage has focused on the struggles of Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, especially as contrasted with the brilliant successes of his opponent, Mark Carney.

How could it not? Mr. Poilievre saw a 25-point lead evaporate in the space of two months. Much of this could be attributed to the rapid-fire sequence of events with which the year began: Donald Trump’s return to office, Justin Trudeau’s resignation, and Mr. Carney’s election as Liberal Leader.

But it was his own inability to react to these events – and, worse, what they revealed about his own weaknesses as a leader – that really sealed the deal. Voters, it turned out, were not so much enamoured of Mr. Poilievre’s leadership as they were heartily sick of Mr. Trudeau’s.

Poilievre sees better days ahead for Conservatives after a ‘challenging year’

The minute they were given an acceptable alternative to both, many voters took it; many more followed, as the true dimensions of the Trump threat emerged – a threat the unflappable Mr. Carney was judged better able to handle than the querulous Mr. Poilievre. Notably, it was the latter’s occasional Trumpiness of tone that appeared to grate on voters, a reminder not only of his own failings but of the leanings of a section of his base, to which he appeared obliged to pay homage.

Yet it was a near thing, in the end. The Liberals won the popular vote by fewer than 2.5 percentage points. And while that margin widened to nearly 10 points over the summer, recent polls have the two parties within a point or two of each other. Mr. Carney may continue to enjoy an advantage of 20 points or more over Mr. Poilievre on the leadership questions – best prime minister, job approval, etc. But it hasn’t translated into an equivalent level of support for the party he leads.

That’s unusual, in an age of weakened party loyalties and leadership-centred politics. Party leaders sometimes lead or trail their parties in the polls, but not by 20 points. So the pollsters have been working overtime to try to figure out what’s........

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